Introduction

Guava (Psidium guajava L.) is a tropical fruit of great economic and nutritional importance, native to America and with a notable productive concentration in Mexico in Michoacán, Aguascalientes, Zacatecas, State of México and Guerrero (^{FAOSTAT, 2023}); it is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical regions of the world.

It is currently grown in around 97 countries, consolidating its position as one of the most important fruits in the international trade of fresh agricultural products (^{SIAP, 2023}). Regarding world production, Mexico ranks seventh, with a 3.6% share of the global total (^{FAOSTAT, 2023}).

The state of Michoacán stands out as the largest national producer, contributing approximately 48.2% of total production, especially during the seasonal production from October to December, when about 41% of the annual volume is obtained (^{SIAP, 2023}). This seasonal pattern responds to the region’s favorable agroclimatic conditions, which enable high-quality production for both domestic consumption and export.

Regions such as Michoacán, Jalisco, and Sonora have shown a strong specialization in the production and marketing of fruits destined for the international market, which shows the importance of the fruit and vegetable sector for regional and national development (^{Secretaría de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural, 2024}); the main export destinations of Mexican guava include the United States of America, Japan, Russia, and various European countries, reflecting the growing international demand for exotic and healthy fruits (^{FAOSTAT, 2023}).

From a nutritional perspective, guava is characterized by its high content of carbohydrates (13.2%), moisture (84.9%), proteins (0.88%) and fat (0.53%). This makes it an important source of energy and essential micronutrients (^{Suárez et al., 2022}). Likewise, its chemical composition gives it properties that contribute to strengthening the immune system and preventing respiratory diseases.

According to Montaño et al. (2021), Mexico has favorable conditions: climate, natural resources, labor availability and geographic proximity to the US market, which is considered the largest in the world.

This paper focuses on evaluating the level of competitiveness of Mexican guava (Psidium guajava L.) in international trade and determining whether Mexico maintains competitive advantages and a solid insertion in foreign markets in a context of growing global competition.

Unlike previous studies, this work combines the analysis of growth rates with various indicators of trade competitiveness, allowing us to fully understand the product’s export performance.

Materials and methods

A database was built with information on the production and trade variables of guava (Psidium guajava L.) corresponding to the period between 2000 and 2023; this time interval allows us to analyze the evolution of production, foreign trade and competitiveness of the sector in the long term and identify trends and recent performance that has contributed to the consolidation of Mexico as one of the largest exporters at the national level.

Data collection was carried out using Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and official and nationally and internationally recognized sources, such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (^FAOSTAT) and the Agrifood and Fisheries Information System (^{SIAP, 2024}).

Based on the information obtained, various economic and productive indicators were calculated in order to analyze the export feasibility of Mexico’s guava-growing sector. The indicators considered were: trade balance (TB), national apparent consumption (NAC), tradability indicator (T), trade dependence coefficient (DI) and indicator of degree of export openness (DE).

These indicators help us evaluate the sector’s competitiveness because they comprehensively capture its productive and commercial performance. The trade balance (TB) reflects the net export capacity and the existence of competitive advantages in the international market; the national apparent consumption (NAC) allows us to analyze the sufficiency of domestic production in relation to demand; the tradability indicator (T) measures the proportion of production destined for export, evidencing the orientation of the sector towards the external market; the trade dependence coefficient (DI) assesses the degree of dependence on imports, which is associated with productive sufficiency; and the degree of export openness (DE) shows the insertion of the sector in international trade (^{Balassa, 1965}; ^{Vollrath, 1991}; ^{Avendaño and Schwentesius, 2016}; ^{Cruz et al., 2022}).

Results and discussion

The data in Table 1 show important differences between economies, reflecting not only their level of development, but also their ability to integrate into global markets. Thailand leads global guava exports, followed by Mexico with 577 934.18 USD (^{FAOSTAT, 2023}). Both countries stand out for their roles as producers and logistics centers, capable of maintaining diversified and export-oriented production.

Table 2 shows export values, expressed in US dollars (USD), for the year 2023 for the eleven main countries. These variations in exports can be explained by factors such as economic infrastructure, foreign investment, available technology and trade policies of each country (^{Krugman and Melitz, 2018}). The leadership of Thailand and Mexico suggests a consolidation, consistent with the processes of economic regionalization.

In 2023, the international guava trade continued to gain relevance as a part of the global tropical fruit market. This product, recognized for its high nutritional value and growing demand for healthy diets, has found an increasingly wide space in the world’s major economies (^{FAOSTAT, 2023}). The Table 2 shows that the United States of America is the leading importer, with a total value of 889 339.77 USD, followed by China, with 741 370.14 USD and the European Union, which reached 665 826.27 USD.

These three regions account for most of the world’s demand, reflecting their consumption capacity and central role in the distribution of agricultural products of tropical origin. The figures show that guava remains a niche product, concentrated in developed markets with high purchasing power and well-established logistics chains. This concentration is consistent with international trade theories, which explain how producing countries, mostly tropical, export agricultural goods to advanced economies that lack the necessary climatic conditions to produce them but have the infrastructure and demand to consume them (^{Pariona, 2022}; ^{Pansara and Vaghasiya, 2025}).

Over the past two decades, Mexico has consolidated its position as one of the world’s leading guava producers and exporters, thanks to the work of producers (^{Gutiérrez et al., 2023}), the adoption of agricultural technology and the opening of new markets. Between 2000 and 2023, national guava production showed a steady upward trend (Figure 1).

Figure 1 Behavior of guava production in Mexico (2000-2023). 

According to data from ^{SIAP (2024)}, the cultivated area went from about 17 000 ha to more than 25 000 ha and production volume exceeded 300 000 t per year by 2023. The country’s guava production is located in the center-west, with Michoacán, Aguascalientes, Zacatecas and Nayarit as the largest producing states. These regions not only stand out for their favorable agroclimatic conditions, but also for the experience and organization of their producers (^{Suárez et al., 2022}).

Mexico has shifted from being a producer mainly oriented toward domestic consumption to consolidating itself as a competitive exporter in the global guava market, with a 31.8% increase in export volume (^{SIAP, 2024}). In 2023, a point of maturity is established because markets are more diverse and demand more, there is a high degree of sophistication and the demand for quality is higher every day (^{FAO, 2023}) (Figure 2).

Figure 2 Behavior of the trade competitiveness indicators from 2000 to 2023. 

The indicators RTB(u), T(u), D(u) and DE(u) were evaluated in the years 2000-2023, where RTB(u) remained constant at 1 and the behavior of T(u) and DE(u) reflects the efficiency or performance of the system over time; from 2000 to 2006, T(u) reaches a consolidation phase, in which it can be seen that it begins to stabilize and from 2007 to 2013, there is a sustained expansion, with continuous growth, reaching its peak in 2013 (0.052) (Table 3).

This period represents a stage of expansion that could be driven by technological innovation and trade liberalization processes. From 2014 to 2017, the indicators remained stable, with values close to 0.05 and there is evidence of a balance in operational efficiency (Table 1). From 2018 to 2023, the values began to decrease slightly, going from 004 in 2018 to 0.034 in 2023. This reduction indicates a slowdown in overall efficiency, possibly influenced by external factors such as increased logistics costs, market fluctuations, or climatic impacts that affected productivity (Table 3).

Conclusions

In 2023, Mexico consolidated its position as the second-largest global exporter, with a value of 577 934.18 USD, confirming its high international competitiveness.

The analysis of guava (Psidium guajava L.) production and trade during the period 2000-2023 showed that Mexico has consolidated a strategic position in the global tropical fruit market, ranking as the second-largest global exporter, with a value of 577 934.18 USD. This performance confirms its high international competitiveness and shows that sustained growth of national production and expansion of exports reflect Mexico’s ability to adapt to the challenges of international trade through the adoption of technology, the organization of producers, and the diversification of markets.

The recent decline in the overall efficiency of the production system highlights the need to strengthen logistics infrastructure, foster technological innovation, and promote public policies that ensure the sector’s resilience to external factors such as climate change and price volatility.

In this sense, Mexican guava is emerging not only as a product of high commercial value, but also as a key element for sustainable rural development, as long as a comprehensive strategy aimed at quality, environmental sustainability and international competitiveness is maintained.