Resumen

CLEMENTE-QUEZADA, Josué Alexis; FARFAN, Michelle; ALBORES-ARZATE, Roberto Horacio  y  MORENO-CEBALLO, Roberto. Fire impact in Cañón del Sumidero National Park, Mexico: Cartography of its occurrence probability. Madera bosques [online]. 2025, vol.31, e312664.  Epub 30-Jun-2025. ISSN 2448-7597.  https://doi.org/10.21829/myb.2025.312664.

Forest fires, whether of natural or anthropogenic origin, are a disruptive phenomenon that affects various forest ecosystems in Mexico and around the world. Their incidence has been increasing, primarily due to the complex interactions between land use and climate change. This rise translates into greater frequency, intensity, and extent of burned areas, leading to economic losses, increased social vulnerability, and environmental degradation. Therefore, it is crucial to identify areas at higher risk of wildfires, particularly in conservation zones. In this context, the study focused on developing a spatially explicit probability model using the weights of evidence method and a set of socio-environmental variables for the Sumidero Canyon National Park (CSNP), a region of significant tourist value and biodiversity in Chiapas, Mexico. The model was evaluated using the ROC test by comparing it with wildfires that occurred in 2009, achieving acceptable area-under-the-curve values between 0.66 and 0.70. The vegetation type with the highest probability of experiencing wildfires was the low deciduous forest, with an average of 161 hectares burned annually between 2016 and 2021. Finally, the probability map was classified into four risk categories: (1) low; (2) medium; (3) high; and (4) very high. This mapping is fundamental for integrated risk management in the face of the forest fire problem in the CSNP.

Palabras llave : anthropic; protected natural area; forest fires; spatial model; weights of evidence; risk; variables.

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