<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-8402</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Ensayos. Revista de economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Ens. Rev. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-8402</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, a través de la Facultad de Economía con la colaboración del Centro de Investigaciones Económicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-84022023000200151</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29105/ensayos42.2-2</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Gasto público y ciclos económicos en México, 1980-2021]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Public expenditure and business cycles in Mexico, 1980-2021]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mejía Reyes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pablo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reyes Hernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marlen Rocío]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Facultad de Economía Centro de Investigación en Ciencias Económicas]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Facultad de Economía Centro de Investigación en Ciencias Económicas]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>42</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>151</fpage>
<lpage>181</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-84022023000200151&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-84022023000200151&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-84022023000200151&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En este documento se analizan los efectos de los componentes del gasto público sobre el ciclo económico de México durante el periodo 1980.1-2021.3 mediante la estimación de regresiones bivariadas con cambio estructural. Aunque nuestros resultados difieren en función del método de eliminación de tendencia y el componente particular del gasto, en general se encuentran cambios estructurales en varias de estas relaciones en torno al año 2000, lo que coincide aproximadamente con el tránsito del manejo del gasto con fines &#8220;estabilizadores&#8221; a uno &#8220;prudencial&#8221;. Nuestros principales resultados sugieren que el gasto total y el gasto corriente son procíclicos en toda la muestra, mientras que el gasto programable, el de capital y el de inversión son procíclicos en las primeras dos décadas, pero acíclicos o contracíclicos posteriormente. En general, estos hallazgos implican que el gasto público y sus componentes no amortiguan las fluctuaciones cíclicas y que sus efectos son modestos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper analyzes the effects of the public expenditure components on the business cycles in Mexico over the period 1980-2021 by estimating bivariate regressions with structural change. Although our results depend on the detrending method and the particular component of public expenditure, in general, we find evidence of structural changes between the second half of the nineties and the first years of this century, which could be associated to the transition from the management of public expenditure as a stabilization instrument to a &#8220;prudential&#8221; one. Other important results suggest that total and current expenditure are procyclical over the full sample, while programmable expenditure and capital expenditure and physical investment are procyclical over the first two decades, but then become acyclical or countercyclical. In general, our findings imply that public expenditure and its main components do not contribute significantly to mitigate cyclical fluctuations and their effects are rather modest.Key words: Business cycles, Public expenditure, Structural change.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Ciclos económicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Gasto público]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cambios estructurales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Business cycles]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Public expenditure]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Structural change]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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