<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2019000200405</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v86i342.682</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[El gasto público en México y su postura fiscal procíclica (1980-2016)]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Public spending in Mexico and its procyclical fiscal stance (1980-2016)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez Cedillo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-Herrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana Departamento de Administración de la División de Ciencias Sociales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Iztapalapa Ciudad de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México División de Investigación de la Facultad de Contaduría y Administración ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>86</volume>
<numero>342</numero>
<fpage>405</fpage>
<lpage>435</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2019000200405&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2019000200405&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2019000200405&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Antecedentes: En la literatura sobre teoría y política fiscal se ha mostrado evidencia respecto de la postura procíclica del gasto público en relación con el ciclo económico en los países en desarrollo y, particularmente, en las economías latinoamericanas. El presente trabajo se ocupa del estudio de la relación del gasto presupuestal y el ciclo económico en México para el periodo de 1980 a 2016; se busca esclarecer si el viraje de la política fiscal puede caracterizarse como una tendencia hacia una postura anticíclica.  Metodología: Para analizar las series trimestrales ajustadas estacionalmente del gasto presupuestal y el PIB (a precios constantes de 2008), sus componentes cíclicos se estimaron mediante el filtro de Hodrick-Prescott. Para explicar el ciclo de gasto por medio del ciclo del producto se estimó una regresión con cambios markovianos de régimen, en la cual las probabilidades del estado varían según la volatilidad del producto. Posteriormente, se estimaron las volatilidades variantes en el tiempo de ambas series, así como sus correlaciones condicionales dinámicas y estas últimas se analizaron en función del ciclo económico.  Resultados: La evidencia es congruente con una política de gasto que ha sido tanto procíclica como contracíclica en diferentes momentos del periodo de estudio, tal como lo ha mostrado la literatura previa, pero en los últimos años se observa una disminución notable del énfasis de la prociclidad del gasto público presupuestal, lo que sugiere incluso que la política fiscal se ha vuelto acíclica.  Conclusiones: A menos que los creadores de política actúen en otra dirección, cabe esperar que la política fiscal siga siendo acíclica y, por tanto, el gasto presupuestal seguirá sin incidir de manera importante en el manejo del ciclo de la economía mexicana.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Background: The literature on fiscal theory and policy has shown evidence regarding the procyclical stance of public spending in relation to the economic cycle in developing countries, and particularly in the case of Latin American economies. This paper studies the relationship of budget spending and the economic cycle in Mexico for the 1980-2016 period, it seeks to clarify whether the shift in fiscal policy can be characterized as a tendency towards an anticyclical stance.  Methodology: To analyze the quarterly seasonally adjusted series of budget expenditure and GDP (at constant 2008 prices), their cyclical components were estimated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. To explain the cycle of expenditure through the product cycle, a regression was estimated with Markov regime changes in which the state probabilities vary according to the volatility of the product. Subsequently, the time-varying volatilities of both series were estimated as well as their dynamic conditional correlations and the latter were analyzed based on the economic cycle.  Results: The evidence is consistent with an expenditure policy that has been both procyclical and counter-cyclical at different times of the period under study, as the previous literature has shown, but in recent years there has been a notable decrease in the emphasis of the procyclicality of the budget public expenditure, which even suggests that fiscal policy has become acyclical.  Conclusions: Unless the policy makers act towards other direction, fiscal policy can be expected to remain acyclical and, therefore, budgetary spending will continue to have non significant impact on the management of the Mexican economy cycle.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[public expenses]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fiscal policy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic cycle]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[gasto público presupuestal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[política fiscal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ciclo económico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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