<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-6655</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Análisis económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Anál. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-6655</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Azcapotzalco, División de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-66552025000200029</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2025v40n104/garcia</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación de expectativas de inflación en México: una perspectiva mediante inferencia bayesiana]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Modeling inflation expectations in Mexico: a perspective through Bayesian inferences]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis Enrique]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendoza Rivera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo Jacob]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Politécnico Nacional Escuela Superior de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Politécnico Nacional Escuela Superior de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>40</volume>
<numero>104</numero>
<fpage>29</fpage>
<lpage>47</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-66552025000200029&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-66552025000200029&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-66552025000200029&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Se reconoce que las expectativas de inflación influyen significativamente en las decisiones económicas. En México, la estabilidad económica ha sido afectada por el aumento generalizado de los precios, derivado de las perturbaciones en el comercio global de materias primas y energía. Este trabajo introduce una innovación al emplear la teoría de la decisión, incorporando las expectativas inflacionarias de expertos para pronosticar tendencias de precios en escenarios complejos, lo que constituye la base para desarrollar un modelo de inferencia bayesiana. Los resultados sugieren que la inflación podría permanecer elevada debido a factores externos y a la desconfianza en la política monetaria. En consecuencia, se enfatiza la importancia de las expectativas subjetivas de los agentes económicos en la formulación de políticas monetarias, con el fin de estabilizar la tasa de inflación y mantener la credibilidad en el contexto macroeconómico actual.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract It is acknowledged that inflation expectations significantly influence economic decisions. In Mexico, economic stability has been affected by the widespread increase in prices, stemming from disruptions in global trade of commodities and energy. This work introduces an innovation by employing decision theory, incorporating inflation expectations from experts to forecast price trends in complex scenarios, which serves as the foundation for developing a Bayesian inference model. The results suggest that inflation may remain elevated due to external factors and distrust in monetary policy. Consequently, the importance of the subjective expectations of economic agents in the formulation of monetary policies is emphasized, with the aim of stabilizing the inflation rate and maintaining credibility in the current macroeconomic context.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Expectativas de inflación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Inferencia bayesiana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Política monetaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Inflation expectations]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian inference]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Monetary policy]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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