<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2444-054X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Cirugía y cirujanos]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Cir. cir.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2444-054X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2444-054X2020000500584</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24875/ciru.20001451</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo predictivo para mortalidad en adultos hospitalizados con neumonía adquirida en la comunidad]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Predictive model for mortality in adults hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Báez-Saldaña]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Renata]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez-Zamora]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ferreyra-Reyes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Leticia]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mongua-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Norma]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García-García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lourdes]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Respiratorias Servicio Clínico de Neumología Oncológica ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México División de Posgrado ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cuernavaca Morelos]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>88</volume>
<numero>5</numero>
<fpage>584</fpage>
<lpage>590</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2444-054X2020000500584&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2444-054X2020000500584&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2444-054X2020000500584&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Antecedentes: Existe escasa información sobre variables predictoras para mortalidad por neumonía en población mexicana.  Objetivo: Identificar un modelo de variables predictoras para mortalidad en adultos hospitalizados por neumonía adquirida en la comunidad (NAC).  Método: Estudio de casos y controles de pacientes hospitalizados por NAC. Los casos fueron pacientes con NAC que fallecieron durante la hospitalización y los controles fueron pacientes que no fallecieron. Los pacientes se siguieron durante el tiempo de estudio hasta el egreso o el desenlace de cada uno. La asociación entre las variables independientes (clínicas, índices de gravedad para neumonía) con la variable desenlace (muerte hospitalaria) se evaluó mediante regresión logística.  Resultados: Las variables asociadas a mortalidad fueron la edad estratificada de 50-70 años (odds ratio [OR] 2.35; intervalo de confianza del 95% [IC 95%]: 1.06-5.17) y &gt; 70 años (OR 2.75; IC 95%: 1.18-6.37), ser mujer (OR 2.05; IC 95%: 1.11-3.8), antecedente de hipertensión arterial (OR 0.40; IC 95%: 0.20-0.80), taquicardia (OR 2.68; IC 95%: 1.16-6.17), taquipnea (OR 2.85; IC 95%: 1.54-5.29), leucocitos &#8805; 12,000 (OR 2.17; IC 95%: 1.21-3.87) y nitrógeno de la urea &gt;30 mg/dl (OR 4.85; IC 95%: 2.55-9.24).  Conclusiones: El modelo de riesgo que se propone es fácil de documentar con la historia clínica y las pruebas de laboratorio habituales.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Introduction: There is lack of information about predictive variables for pneumonia mortality in the Mexican population.  Objective: To identify a model for predictive variables for mortality in adults hospitalized with community acquired pneumonia (CAP).  Material and methods: Case-control study of patients hospitalized with CAP. The cases were incident cases with CAP that died during hospitalization and controls were those that did not die. The patients were followed during the study time until the discharge or outcome of each patient. The association between the independent variables (clinical, severity indices for pneumonia) with the outcome variable (in-hospital mortality) was evaluated by logistic regression.  Results: The model of associated variables with mortality were stratified age from 50-70 years (odds ratio [OR] 2.35; 95% confidence interval [95% CI: 1.06-5.17) and age &gt;70 years (OR: 2.75; 95% CI: 1.18-6.37), woman (OR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.11-3.8), antecedent of arterial hypertension (OR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.20-0.80), tachycardia (OR: 2.68; 95% CI: 1.16-6.17), tachypnea (OR: 2.85; 95% CI: 1.54-5.29), leukocytes &#8805; 12,000 (OR: 2.17; 95% CI: 1.21-3.87) and urea nitrogen &gt; 30 mg/dL (OR: 4.85; 95% CI: 2.55-9.24).  Conclusions: The proposed risk model is easy to document with clinical history and routine clinical laboratory variables.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Adultos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Factores de riesgo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Mortalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Neumonía adquirida en la comunidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Adults]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Risk factors]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mortality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Community acquired pneumonia]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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