<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462018000300295</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v13i3.325</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Polls, Prediction Markets, and Financial Variables]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Encuestas, Predicción de mercados y variables financieras]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Santillán-Salgado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Roberto J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ulin-Lastra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Melissa G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Escobar-Saldivar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luis Jacob]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey Campus Monterrey EGADE Business School]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>295</fpage>
<lpage>323</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462018000300295&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462018000300295&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462018000300295&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This article investigates how the results of the electoral polls and the registration of electronic bets on the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election of the United States explain the stock market performance and the currency exchange rates for Canada and Mexico, the other two member countries of NAFTA. Although the Canadian and Mexican economies are not so di&#64256;erent in size-both compared to the U.S.-, the financial variables of the first were not reactive to the news of the electoral process, whereas those of the latter were significantly a&#64256;ected. Opinion survey data and prediction market prices were obtained for November 2014 to November 2016 from FiveThirtyEight and Iowa Electronic Markets, respectively. The VAR and VECM models proved that the information of the prediction markets is incorporated faster than the information of the surveys, and that the Mexican stock exchange and the MXN-USD exchange rate were highly sensitive to campaign news. On the other hand, Canadian markets were not significantly a&#64256;ected. These findings are theoretically relevant from the perspective of the E&#64259;cient Market Hypothesis, which are useful to forecast market behavior during electoral periods in the United States; and is of importance for portfolio managers, regulators, and other decision makers.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Este artículo investiga cómo los resultados de las encuestas electorales y el registro de las apuestas electrónicas sobre la elección presidencial en Estados Unidos del 2016 explican el desempeño de los mercados de capitales y los tipos de cambio de Canadá y México, los otros dos países socios del TLCAN. Aunque las economías canadienses y mexicanas no son muy diferentes en tamaño (comparadas con la americana), las variables financieras canadienses no reaccionaron a las noticias del proceso electoral, mientras que las mexicanas sí se vieron significativamente afectadas. Los datos de las encuestas de opinión y precios de los mercados de predicciones se obtuvieron de noviembre de 2014 a noviembre de 2016, de FiveThirtyEight y de Iowa Electronic Markets, respectivamente. Los modelos VAR y VECM probaron que la información de los mer-cados de predicciones es incorporada más rápido que la información de las encuestas, y que la Bolsa Mexicana y el tipo de cambio Peso/Dólar fueron altamente sensibles a las noticias de la campaña; pero los mercados canadienses no fueron significativamente afectados. Estos resultados son teóricamente relevantes desde la perspectiva de la Hipótesis de los Mercados Eficientes; útiles para el pronóstico del comportamiento de los mercados durante periodos de elecciones en Estados Unidos; y de importancia para los administradores de portafolios, entidades reguladoras y otros tomadores de decisiones.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
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<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[F31]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G14]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[USA Presidential campaign]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[opinion surveys]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[prediction markets]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[NAFTA]]></kwd>
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<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[F31]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[G14]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[campaña presidencial americana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[encuestas de opinión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mercados de predicciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[TLCAN]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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