<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462016000300117</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Stress-Testing para carteras de crédito del Sistema Bancario Mexicano]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Stress-Testing for Credit Portfolios in the Mexican Banking System]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiménez Rosas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Leslie Alejandra]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Benavides Perales]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Guillermo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="A01">
<institution><![CDATA[,El Colegio de México Centro de Estudios Económicos ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A02">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco de México Dirección General de Investigación Económica ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>117</fpage>
<lpage>140</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462016000300117&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462016000300117&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462016000300117&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: El objetivo del presente trabajo es generar un esquema que permita evaluar la vulnerabilidad de las carteras de crédito de instituciones del Sistema Bancario Mexicano ante choques macroeconómicos adversos. Con éste &#64257;n, se emplearon datos del radio entre cartera vencida y total, de 2000 a 2014, para 65 instituciones &#64257;nancieras. A través del método Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR), se estimó un sistema de ecuaciones que relaciona los indicadores de probabilidad de incumplimiento con diversos factores macroecon´omicos, el cual fue utilizado para estimar distribuciones de probabilidad, una incondicional y otras condicionadas a la ocurrencia de choques particulares en las variables macroeconómicas, para evaluar el impacto sobre las probabilidades de incumplimiento. Los resultados indican que la pérdida estimada en situaciones de estrés no aumenta signi&#64257;cativamente, por lo que se concluye que el riesgo es moderado bajo los escenarios seleccionados. El valor del documento consiste en relacionardiversos factores macroeconómicos con el incumplimiento en las carteras de crédito; cabe señalar que los resultados están limitados a la ocurrencia de los escenarios de estrés inducidos y el horizonte de estimación del modelo econométrico. Clasificación JEL: C15, G21, G28, G33.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a scheme to assess vulnerability to adverse macroeconomic shocks in aggregate loan portfolios of the Mexican banking system. The used database consists of monthly aggregate information of the radius between nonperforming loans and total loans, for the period 2000-2014, for a total of 65 financial institutions. Through the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) methodology, we estimated an equations system to link the default probability and macroeconomic factors, the obtained system was used to estimate the probability distributions, unconditional and conditional upon the occurrence of particular shocks in relevant macroeconomic variables. The outcome indicates that the estimated loss from the different distributions under stress does not increase significantly, so, we conclude that the risk in this sector is moderate under the selected scenarios. The most important result of the work is the obtained relation between default probabilities and stressed macroeconomic factors, but these results are limited by the probability of ocurrence of these induced stress scenarios and the horizon of the estimated econometric model. JEL Classification :C15, G21, G28, G33.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Riesgo de crédito]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Análisis de estrés]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Banca]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Stress Testing]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Banking]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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