<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-7678</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación administrativa]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Investig. adm.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-7678</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Comercio y Administración]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-76782013000100020</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis de la llegada de turistas internacionales a México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Analysis of the international tourist arrivals to Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Conde Gaxiola]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Napoleón]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Politécnico Nacional Escuela Superior de Turismo Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>42</volume>
<numero>111</numero>
<fpage>20</fpage>
<lpage>34</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-76782013000100020&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-76782013000100020&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-76782013000100020&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este trabajo es un análisis sobre el pronóstico de la demanda turística internacional en México entre 2013 y 2018, el cual señala las inconsistencias del actual modelo turístico mexicano y la necesidad de su superación. El método utilizado ha sido los modelos Autorregresivos Integrados de Medias Móviles (ARIMA), cuya eficacia ha sido demostrada en su liderazgo en tanto instrumento primordial de análisis económico y turismológico en los últimos cuarenta años. En el estudio se demuestra la escasa vitalidad y falta de dinamismo de la política turística mexicana, señalando su ineficiencia e incapacidad para competir frente a otros mercados, la cual se expone de manera cuantitativa y cualitativa. También señala el agotamiento de las propuestas turísticas de los actores centrales del estado mexicano para dar cuenta de la nueva realidad internacional de la problemática del viaje y la hospitalidad.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract It is an analysis of forecasting international tourism demand in Mexico between 2013 and 2018, pointing out the inconsistencies of the current mexican tourism model and the need to overcome it. The method used was the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), whose effectiveness has been demonstrated in his leadership as essential tool of economic analysis and turismologic in the last forty years. The study demonstrates the low vitality and lack of dynamism of mexican tourism policy, noting its inefficiency and inability to compete over other markets, which is demonstrated in a quantitative and qualitative way. Also points out the exhausted tourist proposals of the mexican state central actors to account for the new reality of the problem of international travel and hospitality.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[demanda turística]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ARIMA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[viaje y hospitalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[tourism demand]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARIMA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[travel and hospitality]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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