<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2011000200469</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Dinámica macroeconómica con metas de inflación y déficit fiscal]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendoza Bellido]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Waldo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú Departamento de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Peru</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2011</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2011</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>78</volume>
<numero>310</numero>
<fpage>469</fpage>
<lpage>486</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2011000200469&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2011000200469&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2011000200469&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En este modelo, la política monetaria se basa en un sistema de metas explícitas de inflación, con la tasa de interés interbancaria como instrumento de política y la cantidad de dinero endógena; mientras que la política fiscal opera con un límite sobre el déficit fiscal como porcentaje del PIB, siendo el gasto público endógeno. En la regla de política monetaria, el parámetro de suavizamiento de la tasa de interés se desprende de la conducta optimizadora del banco central. El modelo muestra la dinámica macroeconómica que se produce en dos escenarios extremos, de credibilidad completa en la meta de inflación del banco central, y de credibilidad nula, y se encuentra que i) puede haber convergencia hacia el equilibrio estacionario, incluso si no se cumple el Principio de Taylor; y ii) si hay completa credibilidad en el banco central, una política monetaria contractiva puede producir un (undershooting) de la inflación.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In this model, monetary policy follows an inflation targeting scheme, using the interbank interest rate as the instrument of policy, while the money supply remains endogenous. On the other hand, a limit for the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is set as the rule for fiscal policy, public expenditure remaining endogenous. In the monetary policy rule, the smoothing interest rate derives from the optimizing behavior of the central bank. This model shows the macroeconomic dynamics that appears in two opposite scenarios: that of total credibility in the inflation target of the central bank, and that of no credibility whatsoever, and it is found that i) there can be convergence towards the stationary equilibrium, even when the Taylor Rule is not followed, and ii) if there is total credibility in the central bank, a contractionary monetary policy can lead to inflation undershooting.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[política monetaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[política fiscal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Principio de Taylor]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Asso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P. F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kahn]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leeson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Banco Central de Reserva del Perú</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Departamento de Modelos Macroeconómicos]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Banco de la Reserva Federal de Kansas City</collab>
<source><![CDATA[The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Measuring Monetary Policy]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bernanke]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mihov]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Quarterly Journal of Economics]]></source>
<year>1997</year>
<volume>113</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>869-902</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bernanke]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Birch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jorgen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Introducing Advanced Macroeconomics: Growth &amp; Business Cycle]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[New York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[McGraw-Hill]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The 3-Equation Ney Keynesian Model-A Graphical Exposition]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carlin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soskice]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Contributions to Macroeconomics]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>1-36</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Clarida]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Galí]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gertler]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic Literature]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<volume>XXXVII</volume>
<page-range>1661-707</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Levin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Volker]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Williams]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Taylor]]></surname>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Monetary Policy Rules]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[National Bureau of Economic Research]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Eficiencia de la política monetaria y la estabilidad de las preferencias del Banco Central. Evidencia empírica para el Perú]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco Central de Reserva del Perú]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Romer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic Perspectives]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<volume>14</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>149-69</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rudebusch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[International Journal of Central Banking]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>85-135</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Taylor]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<volume>39</volume>
<page-range>195-214</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Taylor]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Taylor]]></surname>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Monetary Policy Rules]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[National Bureau of Economic Research]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Teaching Inflation Targeting: An Analysis for Intermediate Macro]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Walsh]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic Education]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<volume>33</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>333-46</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Woodford]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia]]></source>
<year>1999</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Princeton University]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Woodford]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Princeton University]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Woodford]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Princeton University]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Woodford]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Interest &amp; Prices. Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Princeton University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
