<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-6655</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Análisis económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Anál. econ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-6655</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Azcapotzalco, División de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-66552025000300033</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2025v40n105/loria</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[México: determinantes empíricos del crecimiento económico, 1995Q1-2024Q1]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mexico: empirical determinants of economic growth, 1995Q1-2024Q1]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Loría]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Facultad de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>40</volume>
<numero>105</numero>
<fpage>33</fpage>
<lpage>60</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-66552025000300033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-66552025000300033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-66552025000300033&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Con un enfoque eminentemente empírico, en la vena de Sala-i-Martin (1997) y Barro (1991), que utiliza variables ampliamente aceptadas, con un SVAR(5) de largo plazo (1995Q1-2024Q1), identificado con la metodología de Blanchard y Quah (1989), encontramos que: a) la economía mexicana se encuentra en una larga trampa de lento crecimiento que se ha agudizado desde la post Gran Recesión de 2009 (el crecimiento potencial pasó de 2.6% a 1.5%), atribuible al debilitamiento del crecimiento de la inversión privada (   i p  t ) y al de la producción industrial de Estados Unidos (     y  i n d  u s  t ); b) el principal motor de    y  t es    i p  t, pero sus efectos solo duran 15 trimestres en contraste con      y  i n d  u s  t que son permanentes, c) la volatilidad de      y  i n d  u s  t es más importante que    i p  t para explicar las variaciones de    y  t (40% vs 18%), d) el tipo de cambio bilateral real (   Q  t) no ha tenido efectos reales de largo plazo, aunque de corto plazo son muy breves y despreciables y d) la estimación de un SVAR(5) ampliado con variables de gasto público y de un VEC(7) confirman los resultados anteriores. Incluso el VEC reporta que      y  i n d  u s  t tiene mayores efectos de crecimiento que    i p  t.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract With an eminently empirical approach, in the vein of Sala-i-Martin (1997) and Barro (1991), and based on variables widely reported in economic theory, with a long-term SVAR(5) for 1995Q1-2024Q1, identified with the methodology of Blanchard and Quah (1989), we find that: a) The Mexican economy is in a long slow growth trap that has worsened since the post Great Recession of 2009 (potential growth fell down from 2.6% to 1.5%), attributable to the weakening of the growth of private investment  (   i p  t ) and that of industrial production in the United States (     y  i n d  u s  t); b) despite the main driver of Mexican economic growth  (   y  t ) is    i p  t, slightly above the dynamism of      y  i n d  u s  t, the effects of the former only last 15 quarters and those of the latter are permanent, c) the volatility of      y  i n d  u s  t is more important than    i p  t to explain the variations of    y  t (40% vs 18%), d) the real bilateral exchange rate (MX-US,    Q  t) has not had real long-term effects, although the short-term effects are very brief and negligible, and d) the estimation of a SVAR(5) extended with public expenditure variables, and a VEC(7) confirm the previous results and even the VEC reports that      y  i n d  u s  t has greater growth effects than    i p  t.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Crecimiento económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Inversión privada]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Tipo de cambio bilateral real]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Let the data freely speak]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Blanchard &amp; Quah&#8217;s]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Economic growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Private investment]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Real bilateral exchange rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Let the data freely speak]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Blanchard &amp; Quah&#8217;s]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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