<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-4298</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Botanical Sciences]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Bot. sci]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-4298</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Sociedad Botánica de México A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-42982016000100043</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17129/botsci.500</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Calakmul como refugio de Swietenia macrophylla King ante el cambio climático]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Garza-López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miriam]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortega-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zamudio-Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco José]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López-Toledo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Domínguez-Álvarez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Francisco Alberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sáenz-Romero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cuauhtémoc]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo División de Ciencias Forestales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Texcoco Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo Facultad de Biología ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Morelia Michoacán]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Insitituto Tecnológico de la Zona Maya  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Quintana Roo]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias y Forestales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Michoacán]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>94</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>43</fpage>
<lpage>50</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-42982016000100043&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-42982016000100043&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-42982016000100043&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: El modelado del hábitat climático propicio para la distribución potencial de especies es una herramienta poderosa para proyectar los impactos del cambio climático y sugerir medidas de manejo que permitan aminorar sus efectos negativos. Los objetivos del presente trabajo fueron: (1) determinar la distribución potencial del hábitat climático propicio para Swietenia macrophylla primariamente para la Península de Yucatán, México y para Guatemala, Belice y este de Honduras y (2) sugerir medidas de manejo para reacoplar las poblaciones contemporáneas al clima que les será propicio en la década centrada en el año 2030. Se obtuvieron registros geográficos para S. macrophylla del Inventario Nacional Forestal y Suelos y grids climáticas para clima contemporáneo (promedio 1961-1990), y futuro (década centrada en 2030), con escenarios de concentraciones intermedias (6.0 W/m2) de gases de efecto invernadero. Se modeló la distribución potencial bajo el clima contemporáneo y futuro usando MaxEnt. Para el año 2030 se proyecta una pérdida de hábitat climático del 60 % en relación al contemporáneo para la Península de Yucatán, Guatemala, Belice y este de Honduras. El hábitat climático propicio prácticamente desaparece en Quintana Roo, desplazándose hacia la Reserva de la Biosfera de Calakmul. Se propone recolectar semilla en la distribución actual en Quintana Roo y plantar en esa Reserva, con el propósito de realizar conservación ex-situ, reacoplando las poblaciones al clima futuro que les es propicio.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: The suitable climate habitat modeling for the potential distribution of species is a powerful tool to project the impacts of climate change and to suggest management measures that may mitigate its negative effects. The objectives of this study were: (1) To determine the potential distribution of Swietenia macrophylla primarily for the Yucatan Peninsula, México and for Guatemala, Belize and eastern Honduras, and (2) to suggest management actions for recoupling the contemporary populations to their suitable climate habitat by the decade centered in the year 2030. Geographical records for S. macrophylla were obtained from the Mexican National Forest and Soil Inventory and the grids for contemporary (average 1961-1990) and future (decade centered on 2030), with intermediate greenhouse-effect gas concentration scenarios (6.0 W/m2). Potential distribution under the contemporary and future climate was modeled using MaxEnt. For the decade of 2030 it is projected a climatic habitat loss of 60 % in relation to contemporary distribution at the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and eastern Honduras. Suitable climate habitat practically disappears in Quintana Roo, moving to the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. It is proposed to collect seed in the current distribution in Quintana Roo and planting inside the Reserve, with the purpose of conducting ex situ conservation populations, recoupling the populations to their future suitable climate.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[clima contemporáneo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[hábitat climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Península de Yucatán]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate habitat]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[contemporary climate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[MaxEnt]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Yucatan Peninsula]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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