<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-4018</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Chapingo serie ciencias forestales y del ambiente]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Chapingo ser. cienc. for. ambient]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-4018</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Coordinación de Revistas Institucionales]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-40182022000100037</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5154/r.rchscfa.2020.11.069</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Risk of infestations by Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann bark beetles in forests of Michoacán]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Riesgo de infestaciones por los descortezadores Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins y Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann en bosques de Michoacán]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martinez-Rincón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sigifredo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valdez-Lazalde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Santos-Posadas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Héctor M. de los]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez-Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Guillermo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados Postgrado en Ciencias Forestales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Texcoco Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias Centro de Investigación Regional Norte-Centro ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Pabellón de Arteaga Aguascalientes]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>28</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>37</fpage>
<lpage>55</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-40182022000100037&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-40182022000100037&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-40182022000100037&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Introduction: Severe Dendroctonus spp. infestations are reported in North and Central America. Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins and Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann are recognized as forest pests and are common in the state of Michoacán, Mexico.  Objective: To model current and future (2015-2039) spatial distribution of risk of D. mexicanus and D. frontalis infestation in forests of Michoacán, Mexico.  Materials and methods: Multicriteria evaluation techniques, including the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy membership functions, were combined with climate and biophysical variables to obtain forest infestation risk maps for D. mexicanus and D. frontalis under current and future climate scenarios.  Results and discussion: Climate, fire, tree density and topography were identified as relevant criteria influencing bark beetle outbreaks. The maximum risk value estimated for D. mexicanus was 0.78 and 0.83 for the current and future scenarios, respectively; for D. frontalis these values correspond to 0.84 and 0.85, respectively. In terms of area, high risk of infestation by D. mexicanus increased from 3.9 % (current scenario) to 5.0 % (future scenario); for D. frontalis it decreased from 10.8 % to 9.6 %. The very high-risk value remained constant (0.35 %) for both species and scenarios.  Conclusions: Forests of the Transversal Volcanic Belt (in the northeastern part of Michoacán) have the highest risk of bark beetle infestation in the two modeled scenarios.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Introducción: En Norteamérica y Centroamérica se reportan infestaciones fuertes por Dendroctonus spp. En México, Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins y Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann son reconocidos como plagas forestales y son comunes en el estado de Michoacán.  Objetivo: Modelar la distribución espacial actual y futura (2015-2039) del riesgo de brotes de D. mexicanus y D. frontalis en los bosques del estado de Michoacán, México.  Materiales y métodos: Se conjuntaron técnicas de evaluación multicriterio, incluyendo el proceso de análisis jerárquico y funciones de membresía borrosa, con variables climáticas y biofísicas para obtener mapas del riesgo de infestación de bosques por D. mexicanus y D. frontalis bajo los escenarios climáticos actual y futuro.  Resultados y discusión: El clima, incendio, densidad arbórea y topografía se identificaron como criterios relevantes que inciden en los brotes de descortezadores. El valor máximo de riesgo estimado para D. mexicanus fue 0.78 y 0.83 para el escenario actual y futuro, respectivamente; para D. frontalis estos valores corresponden a 0.84 y 0.85, respectivamente. En términos de superficie, el riesgo alto de infestación por D. mexicanus incrementó de 3.9 % (escenario actual) a 5.0 % (futuro); para D. frontalis disminuyó de 10.8 % a 9.6 %. El valor de riesgo muy alto permaneció constante (0.35 %) para ambas especies y escenarios.  Conclusiones: En los dos escenarios modelados, los bosques de la Faja Volcánica Transversal (en la parte noreste de Michoacán) presentan el mayor riesgo de infestación por descortezadores.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[spatial modeling]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[conifer insects]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forest pest]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Analytic Hierarchy Process.]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelación espacial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[proceso de análisis jerárquico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[insectos de coníferas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[plaga forestal]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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