<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-4018</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Chapingo serie ciencias forestales y del ambiente]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Chapingo ser. cienc. for. ambient]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-4018</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Coordinación de Revistas Institucionales]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-40182020000300433</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5154/r.rchscfa.2019.11.082</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Index for the estimation of the occurrence of forest fires in large areas]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Índice para la estimación de ocurrencia de incendios forestales en superficies extensas]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Torres-Rojo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económica (CIDE)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Ciudad de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Iberoamericana Centro Transdisciplinario Universitario para la Sustentabilidad (CENTRUS) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Ciudad de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>26</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>433</fpage>
<lpage>449</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-40182020000300433&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-40182020000300433&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-40182020000300433&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Introduction:  Estimating the risk of occurrence of a fire contributes to reducing human, infrastructure and natural resource losses; promoting activities to maintain and restore fire regimes; and optimizing resources for suppression.  Objective:  To develop an index of occurrence of forest fires on large areas, called Area at risk of fire (SeR).  Materials and methods:  The index corresponds to the area associated with a probability level measured at the right tail of the density distribution of the area affected annually by forest fires. The density distribution was estimated from the history of the area affected (1970-2018) in Mexico by state. The fit was performed by minimizing the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic with four models: exponential, gamma, lognormal and Weibull. Two related indicators are proposed: proportion of forest area affected by wildfires (PSeR) and incremental area at risk (ISeR).  Results and discussion:  all models showed a statistically significant fit (P &lt; 0.05); the lognormal model performed the best. The SeR discriminates territorial units with the largest area affected by fires; additionally, it efficiently predicts the area to be affected by fires. The PSeR facilitates the comparison of the risk of fire occurrence between territorial units of different sizes, while the ISeR estimates the change in the maximum area affected by fires over a period.  Conclusion:  SeR is an extreme event risk index that provides useful information and has a statistically acceptable predictive power.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Introducción:  La estimación del riesgo de ocurrencia de un incendio contribuye a reducir pérdidas humanas, de infraestructura y recursos naturales; promover actividades para mantener y restaurar regímenes de fuego; y optimizar los recursos destinados a la supresión.  Objetivo:  Desarrollar un índice de ocurrencia de incendios forestales en superficies extensas, denominado superficie en riesgo de incendio (SeR).  Materiales y métodos:  El índice corresponde a la superficie asociada a un nivel de probabilidad medido en la cola derecha de la distribución de densidad de la superficie afectada anualmente por incendios forestales. La distribución de densidad se estimó a partir del historial de superficie siniestrada (1970-2018) en México por entidad federativa. El ajuste se realizó minimizando el estadístico Kolmogorov-Smirnov con cuatro modelos: exponencial, gama, lognormal y Weibull. Se proponen dos indicadores relacionados: proporción de la superficie forestal afectada (PSeR) y superficie incremental en riesgo (ISeR).  Resultados y discusión:  Todos los modelos mostraron un ajuste significativo (P &lt; 0.05); el modelo lognormal fue el de mejor desempeño. La SeR discrimina unidades territoriales con mayor superficie afectada por incendios; adicionalmente, predice eficientemente la superficie a ser afectada por incendios. La PSeR facilita la comparación del riesgo de ocurrencia de incendios entre unidades territoriales de tamaño diferente, mientras que la ISeR estima el cambio en la máxima superficie afectada por incendios en un periodo.  Conclusión:  La SeR es un índice de riesgo de eventos extremos que brinda información útil y tiene un poder predictivo estadísticamente aceptable.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fire risk]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fuel accumulation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fire prediction]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[density distribution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[burned area]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[riesgo de incendio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[acumulación de combustibles]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicción de incendios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribución de densidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[superficie siniestrada]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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