<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-1132</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias forestales]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-1132</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-11322018000600514</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29298/rmcf.v9i50.255</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Escenarios de cambio climático (CMIP-5) para tres áreas naturales protegidas en el Eje Neovolcánico Transversal]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Climate change scenarios (CMIP-5) for three protected natural areas in the Transversal Neovolcanic belt]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Manzanilla Quiñones]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ulises]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aguirre Calderón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Óscar Alberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiménez Pérez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Treviño Garza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo Javier]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yerena Yamallel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Israel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UUniversidad Autónoma de Nuevo León Facultad de Ciencias Forestales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>50</numero>
<fpage>514</fpage>
<lpage>537</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-11322018000600514&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-11322018000600514&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-11322018000600514&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Debido al cambio climático, los patrones de precipitación y temperatura ocasionarían cambios importantes en los ecosistemas del mundo. Los Modelos de Circulación Global (MCG) se utilizan para simular el clima a futuro y con ello se generan escenarios climáticos. El objetivo del presente trabajo consistió en estimar escenarios climáticos para 2045-2069 para las áreas naturales protegidas (ANP) Pico de Orizaba, Nevado de Toluca y Volcán Nevado de Colima. Se emplearon las capas climáticas mensuales a 1 km2 para el presente y futuro de los MCG CRNMCM5 y GDFL_CM3 con un forzamiento radiactivo (RCP) 4.5 (emisiones de CO2 constantes) y 8.5 (emisiones de CO2 en aumento). Se recortaron las capas al tamaño de las ANP, y se ajustó la escala de 1 km2 a 30 m. Se generaron diversos escenarios de cambio climático. Los resultados para el periodo 2045-2069 indican una disminución en la precipitación pluvial entre 18 y 52 mm para el Pico de Orizaba, de 61 a 99 mm para el Nevado de Toluca y de 27 a 38 mm para el Volcán Nevado de Colima; un aumento en la temperatura media anual de 1.32 °C a 1.67 °C en el Pico de Orizaba, de 1.30 °C a 1.76 °C en el Nevado de Toluca y de 0.91 °C a 1 °C en el Nevado de Colima. Los cambios en ambas variables pueden propiciar incendios forestales más frecuentes, mayor incidencia de plagas forestales y menor recarga de los mantos acuíferos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Due to climate change, precipitation and temperature patterns will cause significant changes in the ecosystems of the world. The tool used to simulate future climate is the Global Circulation Models (GCM), which are used to generate future climate scenarios. The objective of this study was to estimate climate scenarios for 2045-2069 for the Pico de Orizaba natural protected areas (ANP), Nevado de Toluca and Volcán Nevado de Colima. The monthly climatic layers at 1 km2 were used for the present and future of the CRNMCM5 and GDFL_CM3 MCG with a radioactive forcing (RCP) of 4.5 (constant CO2 emissions) and 8.5 (increasing CO2 emissions). The layers were trimmed to the size of the ANP, and the scale was adjusted from 1 km2 to 30 m. The current and future climate was estimated and the differences between the two were calculated. Various climate change scenarios were generated. Results for 2045-2069 indicate a decrease in precipitation between 18 and 52 mm for Pico de Orizaba, 61 to 99 mm for Nevado de Toluca and 27 to 38 mm for Volcán Nevado de Colima; increase in average annual temperature of 1.32 °C to 1.67 °C (Pico de Orizaba), 1.30 °C to 1.76 °C (Nevado de Toluca) and 0.91 °C to 1 °C (Volcán Nevado de Colima). Changes in temperature and precipitation could lead to more frequent forest fires, increased incidence of forest pests and reduced reload of aquifers.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Análisis climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[aumento en temperatura]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ecosistemas forestales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escenarios a futuro]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[MCG]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[SIG]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Climate analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[increase in temperature]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forest ecosystems]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[future scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[GCM]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[GIS]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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