<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-0934</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias agrícolas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-0934</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-09342020000100175</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29312/remexca.v11i1.2065</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La producción de vainilla (Vanilla planifolia) en México: análisis y pronóstico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Vanilla (Vanilla planifolia) production in Mexico: analysis and forecast]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Luis-Rojas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Samuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez-Valverde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Benito]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Díaz-Bautista]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Maximino]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pizano-Calderón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carmen]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados Campus Montecillo ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados Campus Puebla Posgrado en Estrategias para el Desarrollo Agrícola Regional]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Puebla]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Intercultural del Estado de Puebla  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Huehuetla Puebla]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro Gastronómico de Alto Rendimiento para la Nutrición Nacional (CGARNN)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad Serdán Puebla]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>175</fpage>
<lpage>187</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-09342020000100175&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-09342020000100175&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-09342020000100175&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La vainilla (Vanilla planifolia) es uno de los aromáticos más demandados en la industria culinaria y refresquera, y entre los cultivos lícitos es de los más rentables, solo después del azafrán. En 2017 la producción en México fue 505.32 toneladas, ubicándolo como el cuarto productor mundial después de Madagascar, Indonesia y China. El objetivo de este estudio fue desarrollar un modelo de pronóstico para la producción anual de vainilla en México (PVAINI). Los datos fueron del periodo 2000 a 2016 y se utilizó la metodología Box-Jenkins de procesos autorregresivos integrados de medias móviles (ARIMA). Los parámetros de los modelos se estimaron con el método de máxima verosimilitud con el paquete de cómputo Statistical Analysis System. Un modelo basado en la serie PVAINI se adaptó para el periodo 2000 a 2016 y se validó con los datos de los años 2016 y 2017. El mejor modelo estimado fue ARIMA (1, 1, 1) e indicó que los PVAINI se explican con la producción ocurrida 4 años previos. Los valores pronosticados para 2017 fueron cercanos a los valores observados. El modelo ARIMA representó con cierta precisión el PVAINI en el próximo año y proporcionó información para planificar y tomar decisiones para los próximos seis años.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Vanilla (Vanilla planifolia) is one of the most demanded aromatics in the culinary and soft drink industry, and among licit crops it is the most profitable, only after saffron. In 2017, production in Mexico was 505.32 tons, placing it as the fourth largest producer in the world after Madagascar, Indonesia and China. The objective of this study was to develop a forecast model for annual vanilla production in Mexico (PVAINI). The data were from the period 2000 to 2016 and the Box-Jenkins methodology of integrated autoregressive processes of moving averages (ARIMA) was used. The model parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method with the Statistical Analysis System computer package. A model based on the PVAINI series was adapted for the period 2000 to 2016 and validated with the data for the years 2016 and 2017. The best estimated model was ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and indicated that the PVAINI are explained with the production occurred 4 previous years. The predicted values for 2017 were close to the observed values. The ARIMA model represented PVAINI with some precision in the next year and provided information to plan and make decisions for the next six years.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[metodología Box-Jenkins]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos ARIMA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[orquídea]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[planeación agrícola]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[agricultural planning,ARIMA models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Box-Jenkins methodology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[orchid]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[prediction]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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