<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1870-6622</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[EconoQuantum]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[EconoQuantum]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1870-6622</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Guadalajara]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1870-66222024000100039</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18381/eq.vi21i1.7325</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Una propuesta para medir el ciclo económico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[A proposal to measure the business cycle]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Romero-Aguilar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Randall]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Costa Rica Escuela de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Costa Rica</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>21</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>39</fpage>
<lpage>58</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1870-66222024000100039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1870-66222024000100039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1870-66222024000100039&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Objetivo:  cuantificar la incertidumbre asociada con la estimación del valor actual del ciclo económico.  Metodología:  se emplea el filtro de Baxter y King en una serie de tiempo ampliada con proyecciones, asumiendo caminata aleatoria, y se construyen intervalos de confianza para el ciclo de manera analítica y con bootstrap.  Limitaciones:  la calidad de los intervalos de confianza se deteriora en presencia de cambio estructural en la serie de tiempo.  Originalidad:  la originalidad subyace en proponer una metodología para determinar la fase actual del ciclo económico de manera conjunta con una cuantificación de la incertidumbre respecto a tal medición.  Conclusión:  para Costa Rica, el método propuesto conduce a estimaciones del ciclo económico menos sensibles a nuevos datos que lo obtenido con el filtro de Hodrick y Prescott, y simulaciones muestran que los intervalos de confianza propuestos proveen la confianza nominal especificada.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Objetive:  To quantify the uncertainty associated to the estimation of the current value of the business cycle.  Methodology:  The Baxter and King filter is applied to an time series expanded with forecasts, assuming a random walk, and confidence intervals are build for the cyclical component both analytically and using bootstrap.  Limitations:  The quality of the confidence 1 intervals deteriorates when there is a structural break in the time series.  Originality:  The original contribution of this article is a proposed methodology to jointly determined the current phase of the business cycle and the uncertainty associated with such measurement.  Conclusions:  For Costa Rica, the proposed method provides estimations of the business cycle that are less sensitive to new data points than the Hodrick and Prescott filter, and simulations show that the proposed confidence intervals provide the specified nominal confidence.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ciclo económico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[filtro Baxter-King]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[proyecciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[intervalos de confianza]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[bootstrap]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C22]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C53]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E32]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[business cycle]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Baxter-King filter]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[projections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[confidence intervals]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[bootstrap]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C22]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C53]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E32]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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