<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1870-2333</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Polis]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Polis]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1870-2333</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[UAM, Unidad Iztapalapa, División de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades, Departamento de Sociología]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1870-23332023000200123</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24275/uam/izt/dcsh/polis/2024v19n2/vilchis</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Aprobación presidencial y elecciones disruptivas en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Presidential Approval and Disruptive Elections in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez-Vilchis]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo Román]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana Departamento de Ciencias Sociales ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>123</fpage>
<lpage>156</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1870-23332023000200123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1870-23332023000200123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1870-23332023000200123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen. ¿De qué manera influyen los distintos tipos de elección presidencial en la tendencia subsecuente de la aprobación del presidente? Este artículo usa a México, con modelos de análisis de series temporales interrumpidas y los índices de aprobación presidencial trimestrales de 1995 a 2022 del Reforma, para analizar los efectos de las elecciones presidenciales (desde 2000) en la tendencia de la aprobación presidencial. Los resultados muestran que la variación de la aprobación del presidente es sensible a las elecciones presidenciales, la segunda tiene efectos estadísticamente significativos en la primera. Estos efectos no son homogéneos, y nos permiten hablar de elecciones presidenciables estables, de cambio, y disruptivas.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract. How do different types of presidential elections influence the subsequent trend in presidential approval? This paper examines Mexico as a case study by employing interrupted time series analysis models. Quarterly presidential approval ratings from 1995 to 2022 (from the Reforma newspaper) are used to analyze the effects of presidential elections (since 2000) on the trend of presidential approval. The results show that the variation of presidential approval is sensitive to presidential elections, the latter having statistically significant effects on the former. These effects are not homogeneous. This paper identifies three types of presidential elections: stable, changing, and disruptive presidential elections.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Aprobación presidencial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[elecciones disruptivas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[elecciones fijas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[series de tiempo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Presidential approval]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[disruptive elections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fixed elections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[time series]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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