<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-899X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista de El Colegio de San Luis]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Col. San Luis]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-899X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de San Luis A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-899X2023000100104</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21696/rcsl132420231483</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[El entorno petrolero internacional frente a la invasión de Rusia a Ucrania. Ralentización de la transición energética y de la lucha contra el cambio climático]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The international oil environment resulting from Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine. Its effects on the energy transition and the climate change processes]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gutiérrez Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Roberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Iztapalapa Ciudad de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>24</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-899X2023000100104&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-899X2023000100104&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-899X2023000100104&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la volatilidad del mercado petrolero internacional a consecuencia, primero, de la contracción-recuperación de la economía mundial debido a la COVID-19 y, segundo, de la invasión de Rusia a Ucrania. Metodológicamente, se trabaja con estadística comparada aplicada al precio internacional del petróleo durante los últimos 50 años, en el marco de la teoría de los ciclos de Juglar y de Kuznets, con lo que se determina que las alzas del precio resultan varias veces mayores cuando se presentan conflictos geopolíticos (1973, 1979, 1990 y 2022) que económico-financieros (1987, 2001, 2009, 2015 y 2020). Es comprensible, entonces, que la invasión a Ucrania esté teniendo un efecto devastador en el aumento del precio no solo del crudo y el gas, sino también de los fertilizantes, el trigo y otros commodities. La combinación histórico-técnica de geopolítica con factores económico-financieros es muy relevante en momentos de volatilidad de precios. Es de esperarse un periodo prolongado de inestabilidad, con precios del crudo cercanos a 100 dólares por barril, asociados al interés ruso más allá de la región del Donbás.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The objective of the research is to analyze the volatility of the international oil market as a result, first, of the contraction-recovery of the world economy due to Covid-19 and, second, of Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine. Methodologically, we work with comparative statistics applied to the international price of oil observed during the last 50 years, within the framework of the Juglar and Kuznets cycles theory, by means of which it is determined that price increases are several times higher when geopolitical conflicts occur (1973, 1979, 1990 and 2022) than economic-financial ones (1987, 2001, 2009, 2015 and 2020). It is understandable then that Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine has had a devastating effect not only on the increase in the price of energy and gas, but also fertilizers, wheat, and other commodities. The historical-technical combination of geopolitics with economic-financial factors is very relevant in times of price volatility. A prolonged period of instability is to be expected, with oil prices close to 100 dollar per barrel, associated with the Russian interest beyond the Donbas region.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[precios del petróleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Rusia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Ucrania]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[gas natural]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[energía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[OPEP Plus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[oil prices]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Russia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[natural gas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[energy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[OPEC Plus]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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