<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462020000100123</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v15i1.354</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[El momento óptimo para invertir en una empresa de la agroindustria del café (Una Aplicación de la Teoría de las Opciones Reales)]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The Optimal Time to Invest in a Coffee Agribusiness Company (an Application of the Real Options Theory)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hernández Álvarez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Zenón]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramos Álvarez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[María de Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>15</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>123</fpage>
<lpage>134</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462020000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La alta volatilidad del precio real del café en el mercado internacional hace que la valoración tradicional sea insuficiente para valorar proyectos de inversión en la agroindustria de café. El presente trabajo muestra como cuantificar e incorporar la incertidumbre en la valoración para determinar el momento más oportuno en el cual una empresa de café invertiría para comercializar su café como café oro verde y tostado en el mercado nacional. La teoría de las opciones reales a través del modelo del momento de inversión óptima permite decidir si invertir o no mediante un valor crítico. Para la empresa social en estudio, se encontró que la inversión se debe llevar acabo puesto que, el valor del proyecto (   V = $  2 &#8242; 481,796.31 ) es superior al valor crítico (     V &#963; * = $  2 &#8242; 481,796.31). Si la empresa vendiera solo café oro verde (   &#963; = 27.94 %) su decisión sería no invertir (    V &#963; * &lt; V). Cuando la volatilidad es alta la inversión debe ser diferida. Al tomar en cuenta la volatilidad de la inversión se podría estimar su &#8220;verdadero valor&#8221; permitiendo a la directiva tomar mejores decisiones.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The high volatility of the real price of coffee in the international market makes traditional valuation insufficient to value investment projects in the coffee agribusiness. This work illustrates how to quantify and incorporate uncertainty in the valuation to determine the optimal timing when a coffee company would invest to market its coffee, as roasted coffee and green coffee, in the national market. Using the optimal time to invest model, the real options theory helps decide whether or not to invest through a critical value. For the case of the social enterprise under study, it was found that the investment must be carried out since the project value (   V = $  2 &#8242; 481,796.31) is greater than the critical value (    V &#963; * = $  2 &#8242; 481,796.31). If the company only sells green coffee (   &#963; = 27.94 %), its decision would be not to invest (    V &#963; * &lt; V). When volatility is high, the investment must be deferred. With its volatility in mind, the &#8220;true value&#8221; of the investment could be estimated to help management in the decision-making process.]]></p></abstract>
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<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Q13]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Q14]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Valoración tradicional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[opciones reales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[valor crítico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[volatilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[café oro verde]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G11]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G13]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[O13]]></kwd>
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<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Q14]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[traditional valuation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[real options]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[critical value]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[volatility]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[green coffee]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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