<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1405-7425</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Papeles de población]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Pap. poblac]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1405-7425</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Centro de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados de la Población]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1405-74252018000100115</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22185/24487147.2018.95.06</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estacionariedad, rompimientos y tendencias de la migración internacional de México: causas y consecuencias]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Stationarity, breaks and trends of the international migration of Mexico: causes and consequences]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hernández Veleros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Zeus Salvador]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Serrano Avilés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Tomás]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>95</numero>
<fpage>115</fpage>
<lpage>151</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1405-74252018000100115&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1405-74252018000100115&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1405-74252018000100115&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: El artículo analiza el proceso generador de datos de las series temporales migratorias internacionales de México por sexo para el periodo 1960-2010, bajo la consideración de estacionariedad con rompimientos y la búsqueda de una relación de largo plazo entre los flujos netos femenino y masculino; para determinar las fechas de cambio, los intervalos de las mismas y los posibles sucesos asociados con tales cambios. Son aplicadas pruebas de estacionariedad panel con múltiples rompimientos y modelos ARDL; además, son planteadas algunas de sus consecuencias, así como pronósticos de los diferente flujos migratorios, bajo la consideración de no presencia de nuevos rompimientos, otros se basan en dinámicas donde habrán cambios de tendencias, en tanto otros pronósticos tienen sustento en datos de acervos demográficos, crecimiento económico, situaciones de control migratorio e inseguridad.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: In the paper we analyze the data generation process of the time series of international migrations for Mexico by sex during the period 1960-2010, under the consideration of stationarity with breaks and the definition of a long term relationship between female net migration and male net migration; with the aim to define the break date, the confidence intervals of them, the possible facts related with the breaks. We employ stationarity panel test and a ARDL model, and else some consequences of these facts are mentioned; we forecast the different international flows under the assumption of no new breaks, other forecasts considers a dynamics with changes in trends, other projections have a root in demographic stocks, economic growth, inmigration enforcement and insecurity problems.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Migración]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estacionariedad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[rompimientos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ARDL]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Migration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[stationarity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[breaks]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARDL]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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