<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0188-4611</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigaciones geográficas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Invest. Geog]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0188-4611</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geografía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0188-46112022000200102</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.14350/rig.60525</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis de tendencias del nivel del mar para la costa central del golfo de México 1999-2018]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Analysis of Trends in Sea Level in the Central Coast of the Gulf of Mexico, 1999-2018]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tapia Flores]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Utrera Zárate]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tejeda Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Veracruzana  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Xalapa Veracruz]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Naval Instituto Oceanográfico del Golfo y Mar Caribe ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Veracruz Veracruz]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Veracruzana  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Xalapa Veracruz]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>108</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0188-46112022000200102&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0188-46112022000200102&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0188-46112022000200102&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Hay consenso científico sobre un aumento en el nivel medio del mar global de alrededor de 0.20 metros durante el periodo 1901-2018 (IPCC, 2021). Este es global, pero no homogéneo, por lo que resultan relevantes los estudios a escalas menores. En este artículo se describe el análisis cuantitativo que se realizó para determinar el comportamiento actual y a futuro de la altura del nivel del mar en la costa central del golfo de México y determinar si presenta o no un aumento similar al reportado a escala global. Se busca determinar la naturaleza del comportamiento observado en el nivel del mar de la región. Tomando como base metodológica el trabajo de Zavala-Hidalgo et al. (2011), fueron seleccionadas tres estaciones pertenecientes a la Red Mareográfica Nacional para caracterizar la marea en la costa central del gofo de México: Coatzacoalcos (18°09&#8217; N, -94°26&#8217; W); Frontera (18°32&#8217; N, -92°38&#8217; W) y Veracruz (19°12&#8217; N, -96°08&#8217; W). Se graficaron los ciclos diarios y anuales para determinar el comportamiento actual de la marea. Posteriormente, utilizando registros horarios, se construyeron gráficas de la evolución temporal para los años disponibles en cada serie de tiempo. A cada una de estas gráficas se le asoció una línea de tendencia que describía las variaciones de la marea con el tiempo y fue calculado un valor numérico para cada línea de tendencia junto a su incertidumbre asociada. Finalmente, haciendo uso de extrapolaciones se estimaron valores a futuro para la altura del nivel del mar en la región. Estas predicciones fueron comparadas con las de otras bases para el análisis cualitativo. Los primeros resultados obtenidos indican un comportamiento estable y constante de la marea en la costa central del golfo de México, con ciclos a escala diaria y anual bien definidos. La tendencia global del nivel del mar en esta región es de -1.86 mm año-1 para el periodo 1999 a 2018. La tendencia global para la primera década es 3.6 mm año-1; la tendencia global para la segunda década es -1.26 mm año-1. En el periodo 2000 a 2010, el nivel medio del mar en la costa central del golfo de México aumentó en un orden de 0.03 metros. En el periodo 2011 a 2018 se observa una disminución en el nivel del mar de aproximadamente de 0.008 metros. A través de las predicciones construidas con extrapolaciones se estimó un aumento a futuro de alrededor de 0.47 a 1.07 metros hacia 2200, considerando las tendencias de la primera década, y una disminución de 0.41 a 0.02 metros hacia 2200, tomando en cuenta las tendencias de la segunda década. La tendencia global observada en el periodo 1999-2018 para la costa central del golfo de México corresponde a un descenso en la altura del nivel del mar en la región, pero sus efectos no han sido observados en el litoral centro del golfo de México. La primera década del periodo considerado presenta un aumento constante del nivel del mar hasta el 2010. A partir de 2011 el aumento es más lento y progresivo. La tendencia segmentada corregida de la primera década coincide con la tendencia media global establecida por el IPCC (2021). Las tendencias negativas no coinciden con ningún valor establecido por la literatura consultada. Las proyecciones de altura de nivel del mar subestiman el aumento respecto de las proyecciones asociadas a las RCP 2.6, 4.5 y 8.5. Dos de las tres estaciones mareográficas utilizadas en este artículo cortan sus registros un año entero -2011- y reanudan los datos con valores inferiores al inicio del corte. En este trabajo no se determinó la naturaleza de este hueco en las series de tiempo, pero se conjetura que esté asociado a recalibraciones del instrumento. Se desconoce el grado de influencia que este corte en los registros tiene en los resultados presentados, aunque no se descarta una posible causalidad.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract There is scientific consensus about a 0.20-meter rise in the global mean sea level over the period 1901-2018 (IPCC, 2021). This is a global figure, but the phenomenon is not occurring evenly throughout the world, so studies at smaller scales are relevant. This article describes the quantitative analysis performed to determine the current and future sea-level behavior on the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico and determine whether or not it shows a rise similar to the one reported on a global scale. The aim was to determine the sea level trend observed in the region. Based on the methodological approach of Zavala-Hidalgo et al. (2011), we selected three stations belonging to Mexico&#8217;s National Mareographic Network to characterize the sea level on the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico: Coatzacoalcos (18°09&#8217; N, -94°26&#8217; W); Frontera (18°32&#8217; N, -92°38&#8217; W), and Veracruz (19°12&#8217; N, -96°08&#8217; W). Daily and annual cycles were plotted to determine the current behavior of the sea level. Subsequently, using hourly records, graphs of the temporal evolution of tides were constructed for the years available in each time series. Each of these graphs was associated with a trend line describing the sea-level variations over time, and a numerical value for each trend line was calculated along with its associated uncertainty. Finally, we estimated future values for sea-level height in the region using extrapolations. These predictions were compared with other databases for the qualitative analysis. The first results obtained indicate a stable and constant behavior of sea level on the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico, with well-defined daily and annual cycles. The overall sea-level trend in this region is -1.86 mm year-1 from 1999 to 2018. The general trend in the first decade was +3.6 mm year-1 and in the second, -1.26 mm year-1. In the period 2000 to 2010, the mean sea level on the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico rose by about 0.03 meters. The period 2011 to 2018 shows a reduction in sea level of approximately 0.008 meters. Predictions constructed with extrapolations estimated a future rise of about 0.47 to 1.07 meters by 2200 considering the trend observed in the first decade and a reduction of 0.41 to 0.02 meters by 2200 considering the trend in the second decade. The overall trend observed in the period 1999-2018 for the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico corresponds to a decrease in sea level in the region, but its effects have not been observed. The first decade of the period considered shows a constant rise in sea level until 2010. From 2011, the increase was slower and more progressive. The corrected segmented trend for the first decade is consistent with the global average trend established by the IPCC (2021). The negative trends do not coincide with any values reported in the literature. Our sea-level projections underestimate the rise compared to those associated with RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Two of the three mareographic stations considered in the present study did not record data over a full year (2011) and resumed reporting data with values lower than those at the start of the suspension. The nature of this gap in the time series was not determined in the present study, but it may be associated with instrument recalibration. The effect of this recording suspension on the results presented is unknown, although a potential causal relationship is not ruled out.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[altura del nivel del mar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[golfo de México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tendencias del nivel del mar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ciclos de marea]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicciones del nivel del mar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[sea level height]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Gulf of Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[sea-level trends]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[tidal cycles]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[sea-level predictions]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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