<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0187-6236</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Atmósfera]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0187-6236</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0187-62362016000200121</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Application of several data-driven techniques to predict a standardized precipitation index]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Choubin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Bahram]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Malekian]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Arash]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Golshan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mohammad]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Sari University of Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources Faculty of Natural Resources ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Sari ]]></addr-line>
<country>Iran</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Tehran Faculty of Natural Resources ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Karaj ]]></addr-line>
<country>Iran</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Sari University of Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources Faculty of Natural Resources ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Sari ]]></addr-line>
<country>Iran</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>29</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>121</fpage>
<lpage>128</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0187-62362016000200121&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0187-62362016000200121&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0187-62362016000200121&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Climate modeling and prediction is important in water resources management, especially in arid and semi-arid regions that frequently suffer further from water shortages. The Maharlu-Bakhtegan basin, with an area of 31 000 km2 is a semi-arid and arid region located in southwestern Iran. Therefore, precipitation and water shortage in this area have many problems. This study presents a drought index modeling approach based on large-scale climate indices by using the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), the M5P model tree and the multilayer perceptron (MLP). First, most of the climate signals were determined from 25 climate signals using factor analysis, and subsequently, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was predicted one to 12 months in advance with ANFIS, the M5P model tree and MLP. The evaluation of the models performance by error parameters and Taylor diagrams demonstrated that performance of the MLP is better than the other models. The results also revealed that the accuracy of prediction increased considerably by using climate indices of the previous month (t - 1) (RMSE = 0.802, ME = -0.002 and PBIAS = -0.47).]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: La modelación y predicción del clima son importantes para la gestión de recursos hidráulicos, especialmente en regiones áridas y semiáridas que con frecuencia sufren escasez de agua. La cuenca de Maharlu-Bakhtegan es una región árida y semiárida de 31 000 km2 localizada al suroeste de Irán, de modo que la precipitación y escasez de agua en esta zona son muy problemáticas. Este estudio presenta una aproximación a la modelación del índice de sequía con base en índices climáticos de larga duración y el uso del sistema adaptativo de inferencia neurodifusa (ANFIS, por sus siglas en inglés), el árbol de decisión M5P y el modelo perceptrón multicapa (MLP, por sus siglas en inglés). Primero se determinó la mayoría de las señales climáticas a partir de 25 señales climáticas utilizando análisis factorial, y posteriormente se predijo un índice estandarizado de precipitación mediante las técnicas ANFIS, MLP y M5P con anticipación de uno a 12 meses. La evaluación de la aptitud del modelo mediante parámetros de error y diagramas de Taylor demostró que el desempeño del MLP es mejor que el de los otros dos modelos. Los resultados también mostraron que la exactitud de la predicción aumentó de manera considerable cuando se utilizaron índices climáticos del mes previo (t - 1) (RMSE = 0.802, ME = -0.002 y PBIAS = -0.47).]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Standardized precipitation index (SPI)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate signals]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[multi-layer perceptron (MLP)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[M5P model tree]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Taylor diagrams]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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