<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-7210</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Estudios demográficos y urbanos]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Estud. demogr. urbanos]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-7210</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de México A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-72102017000300593</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24201/edu.v32i3.1658</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Histéresis y asimetría en delitos: un análisis de los robos a nivel colonia en la Zona Metropolitana de Guadalajara]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Hysteresis and asymmetry in crimes: An analysis of robberies at the neighborhood level in the Metropolitan Area of Guadalajara]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Willy W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guadalajara CUCEA ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Los Belenes ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>32</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>593</fpage>
<lpage>629</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-72102017000300593&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-72102017000300593&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-72102017000300593&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Una de las características de la delincuencia que ha sido subestimada en estudios empíricos es su persistencia temporal y, por consiguiente, su respuesta asimétrica a cambios en sus variables explicativas. La importancia del efecto histéresis ha sido notada en diferentes estudios, en los que se argumenta que éste puede reducir de manera significativa la efectividad de las políticas de lucha contra el crimen. Utilizando las denuncias de diferentes tipos de robos a nivel colonia en la Zona Metropolitana de Guadalajara (ZMG), encontramos que dichos delitos presentan un fuerte componente de histéresis, y muestran un comportamiento asimétrico ante cambios en las condiciones económicas.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: One of the characteristics of crime that has been underestimated in empirical studies is its persistence over time and, consequently, its asymmetric response to changes in its explanatory variables. The importance of the hysteresis effect has been noted in several studies, which argue that it can significantly reduce the effectiveness of anti-crime policies. Using reports of various types of robberies at the neighborhood level in the Metropolitan Area of Guadalajara (ZMG), we find that these crimes have a strong hysteresis component, and display asymmetric behavior in response to changes in economic conditions.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[histéresis en delincuencia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[efectos asimétricos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[delitos contra la propiedad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[análisis econométrico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[hysteresis in crime]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[asymmetric effects]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[property offenses]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[econometric analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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