<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672016000200005</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.inveco.2016.07.002</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Should the U.S. Federal Reserve increase the federal funds rate in 2016? An assessment based on the neutral interest rate]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez Vargas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Armando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco de México Dirección General de Investigación Económica ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Faculty of the School of Economics ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>75</volume>
<numero>296</numero>
<fpage>5</fpage>
<lpage>42</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672016000200005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672016000200005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672016000200005&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[This paper proposes an empirical method to estimate the value of the neutral interest rate in the U.S. and investigates whether the non-conventional monetary policy that has been in effect since the 2008 recession should continue. Specifically, a procedure is established based on a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression (CVAR) model that enables us to conclude that the expansionary monetary policy could continue for at least three more years. Our estimates suggest that the neutral real rate, consistent with full employment and the inflation target in the U.S., will remain negative until 2018. This trend will continue until 2019, when the nominal neutral rate will reach a level of 2%, which remains below the pre-crisis level of 4%. In fact, it seems that the neutral rate has permanently shifted toward a lower level associated with the new fundamentals of the U.S. economy.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Este artículo propone un método empírico para estimar el valor de la tasa de interés neutral de Estados Unidos (EE.UU.) e investiga si la política monetaria no convencional que ha estado en vigor desde la recisión de 2008 debe continuar. Específicamente, se establece un procedimiento basado en un modelo de vectores autorregresivos cointegrado (CVAR) que nos permite concluir que la política monetaria expansiva podría continuar por lo menos tres años más. Nuestras estimaciones sugieren que la tasa real neutral, consistente con el pleno empleo y el objetivo de inflación de EE.UU., continuará siendo negativa hasta 2018. Esta tendencia continuará hasta 2019, cuando la tasa neutral nominal alcanzará un nivel de 2%, la cual permanecerá por debajo del nivel previo a la crisis, 4%. De hecho, pareciera que la tasa neutral se ha desplazado hacia un nivel menor asociado con los nuevos fundamentos de la economía norteamericana.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tasa de interés neutral]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tasa de interés de política cero]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo CVAR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Neutral interest rate]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[zero interest rate policy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[CVAR model]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The natural rate and its usefulness for monetary policy making]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barsky]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Justiniano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Melosi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>104</volume>
<numero>7</numero>
<issue>7</issue>
<page-range>37-43</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bernanke]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Global Saving Glut and the US Current Account Deficit]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Richmond, VA ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Virginia Association of Economics]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Clarida]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Japan, China and the US current account deficit, remarks]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ Cato Institute Monetary Conference]]></conf-name>
<conf-date>2004</conf-date>
<conf-loc>Washington, DC </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Fed is ready to raise rates: Will past be prologue?]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Clarida]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[International Finance]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>18</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>1-15</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in the real time]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Clark]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kozicki]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[North American Journal of Economics and Finance]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<volume>16</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>395-413</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Has US Monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cúrdia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[V.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ferrero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tambalotti]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Monetary Economics]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>70</volume>
<page-range>72-83</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Galí]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[New perspectives on monetary policy, inflation and the bussiness cicle]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[London ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centre for Economic Policy Research]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The natural real interest rate and monetary policy: A review]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Giammarioli]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valla]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Policy Modelling]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<volume>26</volume>
<numero>5</numero>
<issue>5</issue>
<page-range>641-60</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hamilton]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ethan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Harris]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kenneth]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The equilibrium real funds rate: Past, present and future]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[New York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[US Monetary Policy Forum]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[New York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Oxford University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Johansen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control]]></source>
<year>1988</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<numero>213</numero>
<issue>213</issue>
<page-range>231-54</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Measuring the national rate of interest]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Laubach]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Williams]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Review of Economics and Statistics]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>85</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>1063-70</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Lower for longer]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pescatori]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Turunen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[International Monettary Fund Working Paper]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>15</volume>
<numero>135</numero>
<issue>135</issue>
<page-range>1-22</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Washington must not settle for secular stagnation]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Summers]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Financial Times]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Discretion versus policy rules in practice]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Taylor]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<volume>39</volume>
<page-range>195-214</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Decline in the natural rate of interes]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Williams]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Business Economics]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>50</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>57-60</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yellen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Normalizing monetary policy: Prospects and perspectives]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ The New Normal Monetary Research Conference]]></conf-name>
<conf-loc>San Francisco, CA </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
