<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672007000300013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Nuevo método para la identificación de los ciclos económicos de México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[New Method for the Identification of Mexico's Economic Cycles]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González-Estrada]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adrián]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Almendra-Arao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Genaro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados Campus Montecillo ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>66</volume>
<numero>261</numero>
<fpage>13</fpage>
<lpage>33</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672007000300013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672007000300013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672007000300013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: No obstante los costos económicos y sociales de las crisis y depresiones económicas de México, no existe un procedimiento teóricamente adecuado y consistente para la identificación de los ciclos económicos. Los objetivos de la presente investigación son: 1) desarrollar un procedimiento consistente desde el punto de vista teórico-estadístico para la identificación de los ciclos cortos y medios de las recuperaciones, auges, recesiones y depresiones económicas de México; 2) estudiar la morfología de los ciclos, y 3) comparar con estos resultados la eficiencia del método convencional en la identificación de los ciclos y de sus fases. El procedimiento alternativo aquí propuesto, parte de la identificación de los ciclos mediante la aplicación del filtro Hodrick-Prescott (1997) a la serie trimestral del producto interno bruto (PIB) real. Luego se identifican los valores extremos usando el procedimiento desarrollado por Harding y Pagan (2002) y las contracciones y expansiones, mediante el método de Hamilton (2004). Nuestros resultados muestran que el procedimiento convencional es ineficiente para identificar las fluctuaciones cíclicas, pues identifica correctamente tan sólo 60.0% de las fases del ciclo económico. Por tanto, se recomienda usar el procedimiento alternativo aquí propuesto para la identificación de los ciclos, de las depresiones, recesiones, recuperaciones y auges. También se corrobora que los ciclos económicos de México se presentan con regularidad, pero no son periódicos ni simétricos; son de diferente longitud y amplitud y, en consecuencia, se diferencian por su volatilidad o varianza.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: Despite the economic and social costs of Mexico's economic crises and depressions, there exists no suitable and consistent theoretical procedure for the identification of economic cycles. The objectives of this research are: 1) to develop a theoretical-statistical consistent procedure for the identification of short and medium cycles, recoveries, booms, recessions and depressions; 2) to study cycles morphology, and 3) to compare the efficiency of the conventional method for the identification of cycles and their phases with these results. The alternative procedure hereby proposed departs from the identification of cycles by means of the Hodrick-Prescott (1997) filter applied to the quarterly real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) series. Then, the extreme values were identified using the procedure developed by Harding and Pagan (2002) and the contractions and expansions with a method used by Hamilton (2004). Our results show that conventional procedure is inefficient to identify cyclical fluctuations, because only 60.0% of economic cycle phases were correcdy identified. Therefore, we recommend the use of the alternative procedure hereby proposed for the identification of cycles, depressions, recessions, recoveries and booms. It was also corroborated that Mexico's economic cycles appear regularly, but they are not periodic nor symmetrical; they are of different amplitude and length and, henceforth, their volatility or variance differentiate them from each other.]]></p></abstract>
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