<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0016-7169</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Geofísica internacional]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Geofís. Intl]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0016-7169</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geofísica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0016-71692005000400347</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ferráes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sergio G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,UNAM Institute of Geophysics ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Mexico City ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2005</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2005</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>44</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>347</fpage>
<lpage>353</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0016-71692005000400347&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0016-71692005000400347&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0016-71692005000400347&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Conditional probabilities for recurrence times of large earthquakes are a reasonable and valid form for estimating the likelihood of future large earthquakes. In this study we assume a gamma and a lognormal distribution for the recurrence time intervals of large earthquakes. The seismic process in the Acapulco-San Marcos fault-segment can be modelled as a renewal process, using a list of historical strong earthquakes (Ms&#8805;7). For the gamma model, a highly damaging earthquake (Ms&#8805;7) may occur approximately before August 2016 ± 5.14 (yrs). For the lognormal model, a highly damaging strong earthquake (Ms&#8805;7) may occur aproximately before July 2016 ± 5.15 (yrs).]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN El uso de las probabilidades condicionales de recurrencia representa una manera válida y razonable de estimar la posible ocurrencia de grandes sismos. En este trabajo suponemos la distribución gama y logarítmico normal para los intervalos de recurrencia de los temblores. El proceso sísmico en el segmento de Acapulco-San Marcos puede modelarse como un proceso de renovación usando un catálogo de grandes sismos (Ms&#8805;7). Para el modelo gama, un sismo grande puede ocurrir antes de agosto de 2016 ± 5.14 años. Para el modelo logarítmico normal un sismo grande podrá ocurrir antes de julio de 2016 ± 5.15 años.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Sismos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicción probabilística]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[densidad condicional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribución gama]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[distribución logarítmico normal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tiempo de recurrencia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[error de predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Earthquakes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[probabilistic prediction]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[conditional density]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[gamma distribution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[lognormal distribution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[recurrence time]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[prediction error]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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