<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2022000200613</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v89i354.1509</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[América Latina y el Sudeste Asiático. Dos modelos de desarrollo, pero la misma &#8220;trampa del ingreso medio&#8221;: rentas fáciles crean élites indolentes]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Latin America and Southeast Asia. Two development models but the same &#8220;middle income trap&#8221;: Easy rents lead to indolent elites]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Palma]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Gabriel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pincus]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jonathan]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Cambridge  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>United Kingdom</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Vietnam</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>89</volume>
<numero>354</numero>
<fpage>613</fpage>
<lpage>681</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2022000200613&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2022000200613&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2022000200613&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El éxito de algunos de los primeros países emergentes de Asia, como Corea, Taiwán, Singapur y Hong Kong, seguidos por China y la India desde 1980, ha elevado la vara para las economías en desarrollo. Sin embargo, otros países asiáticos emergentes, como los del Sudeste Asiático, incluidos Malasia, Tailandia, Indonesia y ahora Vietnam, aún no logran replicar el desempeño de sus predecesores asiáticos. ¿Será que ya están experimentando los problemas de una &#8220;trampa del ingreso medio&#8221; al estilo latinoamericano? El factor común de los atrapados en esta &#8220;trampa&#8221; en ambas regiones ha sido su incapacidad de &#8220;actualizar&#8221; sus estrategias productivas cuando las existentes ya se han agotado. La &#8220;trampa&#8221; indica que el crecimiento de la productividad es más difícil de sostener en las etapas más elevadas y complejas del proceso de cerrar brechas con la frontera productiva. Mientras que los países de América Latina ya han agotado su modelo de desarrollo puramente extractivo (y el crecimiento de la productividad ya se ha estancado durante décadas), los países del Sudeste Asiático no han logrado recuperar sus trayectorias de crecimiento anteriores a la crisis de 1997, pues han dejado de ser competitivos en actividades intensivas en mano de obra. Este artículo analiza cómo la estrategia ortodoxa del &#8220;más de lo mismo pero, con suerte, mejor&#8221;, que predican tantos economistas y acuerdos comerciales, no es la solución a dicha trampa. Los países de ingresos medios que enfrentan una desaceleración en el crecimiento de la productividad deberían rediseñar sus estrategias productivas. A fin de tener el desempeño de los países antes mencionados se requiere una estrategia consciente a nivel nacional que promueva la inversión en actividades con mayores potenciales de crecimiento de la productividad en el largo plazo, especialmente las exportaciones de manufacturas de mayor valor agregado. La principal implicación política de este análisis es que América Latina debe reactivar el crecimiento de la productividad agregando valor a sus exportaciones de materias primas y fortaleciendo los encadenamientos hacia atrás en sus procesos extractivos, mientras que los países del Sudeste Asiático deben &#8220;profundizar&#8221; sus operaciones de ensamblaje en la manufactura. La hipótesis de Nicholas Kaldor de que la manufactura ofrece la mejor oportunidad para lograr rendimientos crecientes a escala sigue siendo cierta, incluso en los mercados descentralizados y fragmentados de hoy, pero el tamaño limitado de los mercados internos significa que los países de ingreso medio deben priorizar las exportaciones de manufacturas usando todos los instrumentos de política todavía disponibles.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The success of some early Asian emerging countries such as Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, followed by China and India since 1980, has raised the bar for developing economies. However, other Asian emerging countries, like those from Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and now Viet Nam, have not yet been able to replicate the performance of their Asian predecessors. Could it be that they are already experiencing the problems of a Latin American-style &#8220;middle-income trap&#8221;? In these two regions, the common factor has been the inability to &#8220;upgrade&#8221; their growth strategies when the existing ones have run their course and become counterproductive. The &#8220;middle-income trap&#8221; indicates that productivity growth is more difficult to sustain at higher and more complex stages of the catching-up process. While Latin American countries have exhausted their purely extractive development model (and productivity growth has stalled for decades), Southeast Asian ones have failed to recapture their pre-1997 high growth trajectories as they have been priced out of labor-intensive activities. This paper analyses how the &#8220;more of the same but hopefully better&#8221; supply-side-strategy that many mainstream economists and trade agreements focus on is the wrong solution for escaping the &#8220;trap&#8221;; instead, middle-income countries facing a slowdown in productivity growth should reengineer existing development strategies. Matching the performance of the above-mentioned countries requires a conscious, national-level strategy to promote investment in activities with higher long-term potentials for productivity growth, especially higher value-added manufactured exports. The main policy implication of this analysis is that Latin America must reignite productivity growth by adding value to their commodity exports and strengthening backward linkages of export products and services, while Southeast Asian countries should &#8220;deepen&#8221; their assembly operations in manufacturing. Nicholas Kaldor&#8217;s argument that manufacturing has the greatest scope to realize increasing returns to scale remains true, even in today&#8217;s decentralized, fragmented manufacturing systems, but the limited size of domestic markets means that middle-income countries must prioritize manufactured exports using all of the policy instruments still available to them.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[trampa de ingreso medio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[productividad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[crecimiento del empleo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[América Latina]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Sudeste Asiático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E2]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[O11]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[O47]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[N10]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Middle-income trap]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[productivity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[employment growth]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Latin America]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Southeast Asia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E2]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[O11]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[O47]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[N10]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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