<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2021000300875</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v88i351.1301</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Espíritus animales y narrativas populares virales]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Animal spirits and viral popular narratives]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shiller]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Robert J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Yale University Cowles Foundation ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[New Haven ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>88</volume>
<numero>351</numero>
<fpage>875</fpage>
<lpage>892</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2021000300875&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2021000300875&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2021000300875&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El concepto de John Maynard Keynes (1936) de &#8220;espíritus animales&#8221; o de &#8220;optimismo espontáneo&#8221; como una de las principales fuerzas que impulsan las fluctuaciones económicas se inspiró en parte por sus reflexiones y las de sus contemporáneos sobre las reacciones humanas ante situaciones ambiguas donde las probabilidades no podían cuantificarse. Existe evidencia de que, en situaciones tan inciertas, las personas permiten que narrativas populares contagiosas y las emociones provocadas por éstas influyan en sus decisiones económicas. Dichas narrativas no suelen basarse en hechos, pero son contagiosas. Los modelos macroeconómicos dinámicos necesitan una teoría que guarde relación con los modelos epidemiológicos de transmisión de enfermedades. Debemos tratar con seriedad el contagio de narrativas en los modelos económicos si queremos mejorar nuestra comprensión de los espíritus animales y su impacto en la economía.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract John Maynard Keynes&#8217;s (1936) concept of &#8220;animal spirits&#8221; or &#8220;spontaneous optimism&#8221; as a major driving force in business fluctuations was motivated in part by his and his contemporaries&#8217; observations of human reactions to ambiguous situations where probabilities couldn&#8217;t be quantified. We can add that in such ambiguity there is evidence that people let contagious popular narratives and the emotions they generate influence their economic decisions. These narratives are typically remote from factual bases, just contagious. Macroeconomic dynamic models must have a theory that is related to models of the transmission of disease in epidemiology. We need to take the contagion of narratives seriously in economic modeling if we are to improve our understanding of animal spirits and their impact on the economy.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[fluctuaciones económicas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[incertidumbre]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ambigüedad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[confianza]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[epidemias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[contagio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[historias virales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Keynes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[economía de la oferta]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Economic fluctuations]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[uncertainty]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ambiguity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[confidence]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[epidemics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[contagion]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[viral stories]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Keynes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[supply-side economics]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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