<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2018000400833</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v85i340.521</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[El coste del déficit público en España: el aumento en las tasas impositivas y la reducción del gasto público]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The cost of public deficit in Spain: increasing tax rates and reducing public spending]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Álvarez-Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[María T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Polo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Clemente]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Loyola Andalucía Campus Palmas Altas Departamento de Economía]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Sevilla ]]></addr-line>
<country>España</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Spain</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>85</volume>
<numero>340</numero>
<fpage>833</fpage>
<lpage>858</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000400833&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000400833&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000400833&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Antecedentes: En los últimos siete años la economía española ha tratado de reducir el ratio de déficit público-PIB de 11.1% en 2009 a 3%. Este valor es un compromiso registrado en el Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento firmado por todos los países miembros de la Unión Europea (UE), que desde 2010 ha determinado las políticas económicas implementadas por el gobierno español. El propósito de este trabajo es evaluar el coste asociado a una reducción de 1.5 puntos porcentuales en la proporción de déficit público-PIB en las principales variables macroeconómicas utilizando distintas políticas fiscales.  Metodología: Se ha empleado un modelo de equilibrio general aplicado (MEGA) estático desagregado, que incluye todos los elementos necesarios para evaluar los efectos a corto plazo de las políticas fiscales destinadas a reducir el déficit público. El modelo capta el flujo circular de la renta e incluye hogares, sociedades, gobierno y sector exterior.  Resultados: Se sugiere que los efectos generados por la disminución del gasto público en materia de inversión, administraciones públicas y servicios sociales son menos dañinos que los derivados de un incremento en el IVA y en las tasas del impuesto sobre la renta.  Conclusiones: No obstante, a pesar de estos resultados, hay que tener en cuenta que el modelo no incluye los efectos de largo plazo de la reducción de la inversión pública o de los recortes en servicios sociales.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Background: In the last seven years, the Spanish economy has been struggling to reduce the ratio of public deficit-GDP from 11.1 percent in 2009 to 3 percent. This value is a commitment recorded in the Stability and Growth Pact signed by EU members and it has been determining the economic policies implemented by the Spanish Government since 2010. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the costs of a decline in 1.5 pp the ratio of public deficit-GDP on the main macroeconomic variables with alternative fiscal policies.  Methodology: The model used is a static disaggregated Computable General Equilibrium model that includes all the elements needed to evaluate the short run effects of fiscal policies aimed to reduce public deficit. This model captures the circular flow of income and accounts for households corporations, government and the foreign sector.  Results: The results suggest that the decline of public spending on investment, public administrations and social services has less harmful effects on the economy than the increase of vat and personal income tax rates.  Conclusions: Despite these results, it is important to take into account that the long run effects of declining public investment and social services are not included in the model.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ratio of public deficit-GDP]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Computable General Equilibrium model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[value added tax (VAT) and personal income tax (PIT) rates]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[déficit público-PIB]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo de equilibrio general computable]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[impuesto sobre el valor añadido (IVA) e impuesto sobre la renta de las personas físicas (IRPF)]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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