<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2018000300601</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20430/ete.v85i339.399</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[¿A dónde exportan las firmas, por qué eligen ese mercado, quiénes venden más y cuántas comercian? Un análisis con firmas manufactureras localizadas en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Where Do Firms Export, Why Do They Choose that Market, Who Sell More and How Many Trade? An Analysis with Mexican Manufacturing Firms Located in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cardoso Vargas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos Enrique]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Secretaría de Finanzas de la Ciudad de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>85</volume>
<numero>339</numero>
<fpage>601</fpage>
<lpage>644</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000300601&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000300601&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2018000300601&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen:  Antecedentes: Son escasas las investigaciones que examinan los patrones de comercio que exhiben los países alrededor del mundo, y lo son aún más para países en desarrollo. ¿A dónde es factible que las empresas exporten?, ¿por qué las firmas prefieren un destino de venta en lugar de otro?, ¿qué firmas venden más una vez que exportan y cuántas de ellas comercian en los mercados foráneos? Éstas son preguntas que tienen implicaciones de política pública, tanto en el incremento en las ventas externas como en la diversificación de las exportaciones en mercados foráneos.  Metodología: Mediante un modelo de equilibrio parcial de firmas heterogéneas inspirado en Melitz (2003) se derivan distintas hipótesis para dar respuesta a las interrogantes. La evaluación se realiza utilizando un panel construido con información sobre los flujos comercio y datos de producción de una muestra de empresas manufactureras localizadas en México de 2004 a 2010.  Resultados: Es más probable que los exportadores vendan a grandes mercados, aunque esa posibilidad se ve restringida por los costos de transporte para llegar a esos destinos: firmas con mayor productividad y tamaño tienen mayor probabilidad de exportar a más países. La selección del destino de exportación de la firma se ve influenciada por el tamaño y la productividad de la empresa, así como por la demanda en el país de destino y la experiencia exportadora en un mercado en particular. Un crecimiento de 10% en la productividad aumentaría en 4.2% la posibilidad de las firmas de elegir al mercado latinoamericano en lugar del norteamericano; con esa alza sería posible que incrementara en 2.5 o 2.4% la probabilidad de exportar a Europa o Asia, en lugar de seleccionar América del Norte. Por su parte, un incremento de 10% en la demanda externa global ocasionaría una disminución entre 2.8 y 12.2% en la probabilidad de seleccionar a otros destinos de venta con respecto al mercado norteamericano.  Conclusiones: Aumentos en la productividad y el tamaño de las firmas exportadoras presupondría un aumento en su nivel de ventas en el exterior. En términos de diversificación de las ventas externas, el sustituir el comercio con el mercado de Norteamérica es complicado; no obstante, los destinos más razonables serían Europa y Asia. La estrategia para ampliar las exportaciones a otros países en empresas pequeñas y medianas debería enfocarse en incrementar tanto su productividad y tamaño como en mejorar su acceso a esas áreas; para empresas más grandes, mejorar el acceso sería no sólo una estrategia indispensable, sino la que muy posiblemente podría dar resultados en un menor tiempo.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract:  Background:  There is little research that examines the patterns of trade countries around the world exhibit, and even more so for developing countries. Where is it possible for companies to export? Why do firms prefer a sales destination to another? What firms sell more once they export and how many of them trade in foreign markets? Those questions have implications for public policy, both in the increase in foreign sales and in the diversification of exports in foreign markets.  Methodology:  Using a partial equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms inspired by Melitz (2003), different hypotheses are derived to answer the questions. The evaluation is carried out using a panel built with information on trade flows and production data of a sample of manufacturing firms located in Mexico from 2004 to 2010.  Results:  It is more likely that exporters will sell to large markets, although this possibility is restricted by the transportation costs to reach those destinations. Firms with higher productivity and size are more likely to export to more countries. The selection of the export destination at the firm level is influenced by the firm&#8217;s size and productivity, as well as by demand in destination country and export experience in a particular market. A growth of 10% in productivity would increase by 4.2% the possibility of firms choosing the Latin American market instead of the North American. With this increase, it is possible that it increased the probability of exporting to Europe or Asia by 2.5 or 2.4%, in relation to selecting the North American market. On the other hand, a 10% increase in global demand would cause a decrease between 2.8 and 12.2% in the probability of selecting other sales destinations regarding the North American market.  Conclusions:  Increases in productivity and the size of export firms would presuppose an increase in their level of sales abroad. In terms of diversification of foreign sales, substituting trade with the North American market is complicated; however, the most reasonable destinations would be Europe and Asia. The strategy to expand exports to other countries in small and medium firms should focus on increasing both their productivity and size, and improving their access to these areas. For larger firms, improving access would not only be an indispensable strategy, but one that could very possibly give results in a shorter time.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[comercio internacional]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[heterogeneidad de firmas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[comportamiento de la empresa]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[international trade]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[heterogeneity of firms]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[firm behavior]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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