<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2448-718X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[El trimestre econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2448-718X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo de Cultura Económica]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2448-718X2009000400811</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La intolerancia a la deuda]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reinhart]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carmen M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rogoff]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Kenneth S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Savastano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Miguel A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Fondo Monetario Internacional  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2009</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2009</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>76</volume>
<numero>304</numero>
<fpage>811</fpage>
<lpage>884</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2448-718X2009000400811&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2448-718X2009000400811&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2448-718X2009000400811&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Este artículo presenta el concepto de la &#8220;intolerancia a la deuda&#8221;, que se manifiesta en la extrema presión que experimentan muchos mercados emergentes por las deudas que parecerían manejables según los estándares de países desarrollados. Argumentamos que los umbrales &#8220;seguros&#8221; de la relación deuda externa/PNB para países con intolerancia a la deuda son bajos, quizá de hasta 15% en algunos casos. Estos umbrales dependen de la trayectoria de morosidad e inflación de cada país. La intolerancia a la deuda está vinculada con el fenómeno de la morosidad recurrente que afecta a muchos países desde hace dos siglos. La comprensión y medición de la intolerancia a la deuda es fundamental para evaluar los problemas provenientes de la sostenibilidad y reestructuración de la deuda, la integración de los mercados de capitales y el alcance de los préstamos internacionales para aminorar las crisis. Nuestra meta es hacer un primer intento por cuantificar la intolerancia a la deuda, incluyendo la delineación de los clubes y regiones de vulnerabilidad de los deudores, tomando como base una historia de eventos de crédito que data desde el decenio de 1820 de más de 100 países.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This paper introduces the concept of &#8220;debt intolerance,&#8221; which manifests itself in the extreme duress many emerging markets experience at debt levels that would seem manageable by advanced country standards. We argue that &#8220;safe&#8221; external debt-to-GNP thresholds for debt intolerant countries are low, perhaps as low as 15 percent in some cases. These thresholds depend on a country&#8217;s default and inflation history. Debt intolerance is linked to the phenomenon of serial default that has plagued many countries over the past two centuries. Understanding and measuring debt intolerance is fundamental to assess the problems of debt sustainability, debt restructuring, capital market integration, and the scope for international lending to ameliorate crises. Our goal is to make a first pass at quantifying debt intolerance, including delineating debtors&#8217; clubs and regions of vulnerability, on the basis on a history of credit events going back to the 1820s for over 100 countries.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[finanzas internacionales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ajuste de cuenta corriente]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[movimientos de capital]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[deuda soberana]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[problemas de deuda]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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