<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-8064</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Entreciencias: diálogos en la sociedad del conocimiento]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Entreciencias: diálogos soc. conoc.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-8064</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-80642023000100004</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/enesl.20078064e.2023.25.84853</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Vulnerabilidad costera y cambio climático: propuesta metodológica de prospectiva participativa basada en las Trayectorias Socioeconómicas Compartidas (SSP)]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Coastal Vulnerability and Climate Change: A Methodological Proposal of Participatory Prospective Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nájera González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Areli]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Marceleño Flores]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Susana]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chávez-Dagostino]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rosa María]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nájera González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Oyolsi]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carrillo González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fátima Maciel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de Nayarit  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guadalajara Centro Universitario de la Costa ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>25</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-80642023000100004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-80642023000100004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-80642023000100004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Objetivo:  Diseñar un proceso prospectivo participativo con base en los escenarios SSP para estimar la vulnerabilidad futura al cambio climático de un territorio costero. Tomando como caso de estudio San Blas, Nayarit; una zona rural con actividad turística en el Pacífico mexicano.  Diseño metodológico:  Con base en los principios de prospectiva territorial, el método consistió en dos secciones. La elaboración de un diagnostico prospectivo en donde se presenta un modelo para analizar la vulnerabilidad territorial histórica, actual y su tendencia. Y el diseño de un proceso prospectivo participativo, que fue compuesto por la selección de actores clave, la delimitación espacio-temporal, elección de escenarios y dinámica del taller prospectivo.  Resultados:  De acuerdo con el diagnostico; la vulnerabilidad de la zona aumentó de nivel bajo a nivel medio entre 2000 y 2019, y se proyecta que incremente a nivel medio-alto en 2038. Las zonas más vulnerables resultaron las cubiertas por ecosistemas estuarinos y manglares. De la propuesta metodológica de prospectiva participativa se presenta una guía en formato cuadernillo de trabajo, en donde se describe a detalle la dinámica para conducir el taller abordando tres escenarios SSP.  Limitaciones de la investigación:  La principal limitante fue la escasez de información a nivel local para analizar cada uno de los componentes de vulnerabilidad en el diagnóstico prospectivo. La aplicación de la propuesta metodológica del taller prospectivo y sus resultados serán motivo de análisis en una segunda fase de la investigación.  Hallazgos:  La actividad turística orientado al ecoturismo puede ser el vehículo que conduzca la propuesta y aplicación de estrategias de adaptación para reducir la vulnerabilidad de la zona al cambio climático.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Purpose:  To design a participatory prospective process based on SSP scenarios to estimate the future vulnerability to climate change in a coastal territory taking San Blas, Nayarit, a rural area with tourist activity on the Mexican Pacific, as a case study.  Methodological design:  Based on the principles of territorial prospective, the method consisted of two sections: The development of a prospective diagnosis where a model is presented to analyze historical, current, and trend-based territorial vulnerability and the design of a participatory prospective process, which included the selection of key actors, spatial-temporal delimitation, scenario selection, and dynamics of the prospective workshop.  Results:  According to the diagnosis, the vulnerability of the area increased from a low to medium level between 2000 and 2019, and it is projected to increase to a medium-high level in 2038. The most vulnerable areas were those covered by estuarine and mangrove ecosystems. Regarding the participatory prospective methodology, a guide in the form of a workbook is presented detailing the dynamics to conduct the workshop, addressing three SSP scenarios.  Research limitations:  The main limitation was the scarcity of local-level information to analyze each of the vulnerability components in the prospective diagnosis. The application of the proposed methodology for the prospective workshop and its results will be subject to analysis in a second phase of the research.  Findings:  Ecotourism-oriented tourist activity can serve as the vehicle to drive the proposal and implementation of adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[taller participativo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estrategias de adaptación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escenarios climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Nayarit]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[participatory workshop]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[adaptation strategies]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Nayarit]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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