<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-6576</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Sociedad y ambiente]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Soc. ambient.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-6576</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de la Frontera Sur]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-65762018000200115</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Riesgo económico-agrícola y escenarios de cambio climático (2025-2075) en una región del trópico seco mexicano]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Economic-agricultural risk and climate change scenarios (2025-2075) in a region of the dry mexican tropics]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortiz Paniagua]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortega Gómez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alba María]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Investigación en Geografía Ambiental ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Morelia ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>17</numero>
<fpage>115</fpage>
<lpage>142</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-65762018000200115&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-65762018000200115&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-65762018000200115&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen De acuerdo con los escenarios de cambio climático global, la región de la Tierra Caliente en Michoacán, es una de las más vulnerables a este evento. A escala local y regional no se cuenta con la información al respecto, ni se conoce el grado de vulnerabilidad regional, ni el riesgo de la economía municipal vinculada con el sector agrícola. El presente estudio tuvo como objetivo diseñar una metodología que permitiera cuantificar el riesgo económico-agrícola regional. Para ello se concibió el riesgo como el producto de la vulnerabilidad y la amenaza. Para la primera variable se diseñó un índice de vulnerabilidad económico-agrícola que emplea 21 indicadores (IVEA). En tanto, se concibió el cambio climático regional como la amenaza, lo que se verificó mediante el análisis de temperatura y de precipitación bajo escenarios de cambio climático; para ello se analizaron 20 estaciones climatológicas. Los resultados muestran el riesgo económico agrícola para los municipios al interior de la región y que ésta experimentará incrementos en la temperatura máxima de 0.4 °C a 3.1 °C y en las temperaturas mínimas y 0.4 °C a 2.4 °C. Por su parte, la precipitación ya muestra indicios de una reducción en los períodos revisados, por lo que se espera una tendencia a la reducción de entre 10% y 20%, lo que verifica la señal del cambio climático en la región.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract According global climate change scenarios, Tierra Caliente in Michoacán is one of the most vulne rable regions to this event. At the local and regional level, there is no information on the degree of regional vulnerability or the risk of the municipal economy linked to the agricultural sector. The aim of this study was to design a methodology to quantify the regional economic-agricultural risk. Risk was conceived as the result of vulnerability and threat. For the first variable an economic-agricultural vulnerability index was designed using 21 indicators. Conversely, regional climate change was conceived as the threat, verified through temperature and precipitation analysis under climate change scenarios, for which 20 climatological stations were analyzed. The results show the agricultural economic risk for the municipalities within the region and the fact the region will experience increases in maximum temperatures of 0.4 °C to 3.1 °C and reductions in minimum temperatures from 0.4 °C to 2.4 °C. On the other hand, since precipitation already shows signs of a reduction in the periods reviewed, a reduction trend of between 10% and 20% is expected, thereby proving the sign of climate change in the region.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escenarios de cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[vulnerabilidad productores agrícolas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[región Tierra Caliente, Michoacán, México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[LARS-WG]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[agricultural produce vulnerability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Tierra Caliente region, Michoacán, Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[LARS-WG]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bancet]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alice]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mónica]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Costa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pedro,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Vanessa]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Cambio climático y lucha contra la pobreza: La experiencia africana (2009-2010)]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Madrid, España ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bates]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Bryson]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kundzewicz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Zbigniew W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Shaohong,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Palutikof]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jean]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[El Cambio Climático y el Agua. Documento técnico del Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático, Secretaría del IPCC]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Ginebra, Suiza ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[OMM/PNUMA]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Beddington]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[John]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Asaduzzaman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mohammed]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adrián]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Clark]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Megan]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guillou]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marion]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jahn]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[MollyM]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Erda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lin]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mamo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Tekalign]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Van Bo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Nguyen]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nobre]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Scholes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Robert]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sharma]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rita]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wakhungu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Judi]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Lograr la seguridad alimentaria ante el cambio climático. Resumen para responsables de la política de la Comisión sobre la Agricultura Sostenible y el Cambio Climático]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Copenhague, Dinamarca ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[CCAFS]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Blaikie]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Piers]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cannon]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Terry]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[David]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ian,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wisner]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ben]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Vulnerabilidad. El entorno social, político y económico de los desatres]]></source>
<year>1996</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Buch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mario]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Turcios]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marvin]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Vulnerabilidad socioambiental: aplicaciones para Guatemala]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Guatemala ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Rafael Landívar-Instituto de Agricultura, Recursos Naturales y Ambiente]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>CEPAL</collab>
<source><![CDATA[La economía del cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe. Paradojas y desafíos del desarrollo sostenible]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Santiago de Chile ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Naciones Unidas]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cardona]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Omar]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando sistemas dinámicos complejos]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ International Work-Conference on Vulnerability in Disaster Theory and Practice]]></conf-name>
<conf-loc>Wageningen, Holanda </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Centro Mario Molina</collab>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Cambio Climático]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Macorra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ximena de la]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sandoval]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vizcaíno]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Migración Humana y cambio climático]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México D.F. ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fundación BBVA Bancomer]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>CLICOM</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Base de datos Climatológica Nacional (Sistema Clicom)]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Conde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cecilia]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ferrer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rosa María]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gay]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Araujo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raquel]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Impactos del cambio climático en la agricultura en México]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Julia]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adrián]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Cambio climático: una visión desde México]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<page-range>227-38</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Semarnat/INE]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Constantino]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Roberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dávila I.]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Hilda]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Una aproximación a la vulnerabilidad y la resiliencia ante eventos hidrometeorológicos extremos en México]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Política y Cultura]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>1</volume>
<numero>36</numero>
<issue>36</issue>
<page-range>14-44</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Eakin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Hallie]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Institutional Change, Climate Risk, and Rural Vulnerability: Cases from Central Mexico]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[World Development]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<volume>33</volume>
<numero>11</numero>
<issue>11</issue>
<page-range>1923-38</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>FAO</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Panorama de la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional en América Latina y el Caribe]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Roma ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Food and Agriculture Organization]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Feenstra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jan]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Burton]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ian]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Smith]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Joel,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tol]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Richard]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Handbook on Methods of Climate Change Impacts Assessment and Adaptation Strategies]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Amsterdam, Países Bajos ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[United Nations Environment Program, Nairobi, Kenya/Institute for Environmental Studies]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ferrer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rosa María]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Conde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cecilia]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villarreal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gustavo,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Liverman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diana]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Agricultura en México y cambio climático global. Memorias del Segundo Taller de "Estudio de País: México". México ante el Cambio Climático]]></source>
<year>1995</year>
<page-range>8-11</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fisher]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Anthony C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hanemann]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W. Michael]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Schlenker]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Wolfram,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Roberts]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Michael J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Climate Change and Agriculture Reconsidered". CUBARE Working Paper]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Berkeley ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de California]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Foschiatti]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ana María]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Vulnerabilidad global y pobreza]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Revista Geográfica Digital. IGUNNE]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<volume>1</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>1-20</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gay]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Conde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cecilia]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Vulnerabilidad y adaptación a los efectos del cambio climático en México]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fondo ambiental público del Gobierno del Distrito Federal, Conferencia Nacional de Gobernadores y Secretaría del Medio Ambiente del Gobierno del Distrito Federal]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Granados Ramírez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rebeca]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sarabia Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Asael Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Cambio climático y efectos en la fenología del maíz en el DDR-Toluca]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Agrícolas]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<issue>3</issue>
<page-range>435-46</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez-Mendoza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Leticia]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bello-Mendoza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lourdes,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dulce]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Torres]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Escenarios regionales de cambio climático para la Reserva de la Biosfera Sierra Gorda Guanajuato, México]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Acta Universitaria]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>27</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>55-66</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jones]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Watkins]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Andrew]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Braganza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Karl,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Coughlan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Michael]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Great Global Warming Swindle': a Critique]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<numero>20</numero>
<issue>20</issue>
<page-range>11</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<source><![CDATA[Desarrollo de la Estrategia Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio Climático. Gestión de Riesgos ante el Cambio Climático y Diagnóstico de Vulnerabilidad]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México D.F. ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático-qbic-Global Green Growth Institute]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>INEGI</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Censo Ejidal 2007. Censo Agrícola, Ganadero y Ejidal]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>INEGI</collab>
<source><![CDATA[XII Censo de Población y Vivienda]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B25">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>INEGI</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Prontuario de Información Geográfica Municipal de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B26">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>INEGI</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Estructura económica de Michoacán de Ocampo, en síntesis]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Aguascalientes, México ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B27">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>INEGI</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Anuario estadístico y geográfico de Michoacán de Ocampo 2015]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B28">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nakicenovic]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Nebojsa]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Special Report on Emissions Scenarios]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cambridge ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cambridge University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B29">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>IPCC</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cambridge y Nueva York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cambridge University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B30">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>IPCC</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Climate Change 2007. Cuarto Informe de Evaluación (AR4)]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B31">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>IPCC</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Climate Change 2014. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Summary for Policy Makers. Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. WG AR5 Phase I Report Launch]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Yokohama, Japón ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B32">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jones]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Peter G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Thornton]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Philip K.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Production in Africa and Latin America in 2055]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Global environmental change]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>51-9</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B33">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lavell]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Allan]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Sobre la gestión del riesgo: apuntes hacia una definición]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Biblioteca Virtual en Salud de Desastres-OPS]]></source>
<year>2001</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B34">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Magaña]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Conde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cecilia]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Óscar,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carlos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gay]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Evaluación de Escenarios Regionales de Clima Actual y de Cambio Climático futuro para México]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gay]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[México: Una visión hacia el siglo XXI. El cambio climático en México]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Ecología/UNAM/US Country Studies Program]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B35">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Magaña]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Guía para generar y aplicar escenarios probabilísticos regionales de cambio climático en la toma de decisiones]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Ecología]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B36">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Julio]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ortega-Chávez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yann]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ramos]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Índices climatológicos regionales para la Sierra Gorda de Guanajuato]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Acta Universitaria]]></source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>23</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<issue>6</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B37">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mercado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carmen]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lorenzana]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Paulina]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Acceso y Disponibilidad alimentaria familiar. Validación de instrumentos para su medición]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Caracas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fundación Polar]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B38">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Masera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Omar]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Bosques y cambio climático en América Latina. Análisis y perspectivas]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leff]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Enrique]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ezcurra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ezequiel]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[La transición hacia el desarrollo sustentable. Perspectivas de América Latina y el Caribe]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<page-range>211-35</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Jiménez Editores e impresores S. A.]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B39">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendelsohn]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Robert]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dinar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ariel,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Williams]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Larry]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[The Distributional Impact of Climate Change on Rich and Poor Countries]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Environment and Development Economics]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>159-78</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B40">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Miklos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Tomás]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tello]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[María]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Planeación Prospectiva. Una estrategia para el Diseño del futuro]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Limusa]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B41">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Monterroso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Conde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cecilia]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gay]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[David,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Two Methods to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Mexican Agricultural Sector]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>19</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>445-61</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B42">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Monterroso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Agustín]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Trejo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rosa I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Conde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cecilia]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Escandón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villers]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lourdes,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gay]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Vulnerabilidad y adaptación a los efectos del cambio climático en México]]></source>
<year>2014</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[UNAM, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera/ Universidad Autónoma de Chapingo/Instituto de Geografía, UNAM/Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático, UNAM]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B43">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>ONU</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático]]></source>
<year>1992</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Organización de Naciones Unidas]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B44">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ortega]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[María]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alba]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Cambio Climático y Agricultura en la Región Tierra Caliente de Michoacán, Escenarios 2025-2075]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[ININEE, UMSNH]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B45">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Periodico Oficial del Gobierno Constitucional del Estado de Michoacán de Ocampo</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Decreto de regionalización para la planeación y el desarrollo de Michoacán]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B46">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ponce]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yasmín]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cantú]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pedro]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Cambio climático: bases científicas y escepticismo]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[CULCyT: Cultura Científica y Tecnológica]]></source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>9</volume>
<numero>46</numero>
<issue>46</issue>
<page-range>5-12</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B47">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Santiago Jerónimo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Abel]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Análisis de la agricultura de temporal en México y su relación con las cuestiones climáticas: caso maíz y frijol]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[México ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Agraria Antonio Narro]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B48">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Semenov]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mikhail A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brooks]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Roger]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barrow]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Elaine M.,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Richardson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Clarence]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG Stochastic Weather Generators for Diverse Climates]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Climate research]]></source>
<year>1998</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>95-107</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B49">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Semenov]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mikhail A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barrow]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Elaine M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[LARS-WG, A Stochastic Weather Generator for Use in Climate Impact Studies]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B50">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Semenov]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mikhail]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Stratonovitch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pierre]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Use of Multi-Model Ensembles from Global Climate Models for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Climate Research]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>41</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>1-14</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B51">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>SIAP-Sagarpa</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Servicio de información agroalimentaria y pesquera]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Secretaría de Agricultura Ganadería Desarrollo Rural, Pesca y Alimentación]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B52">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Stern]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Nicholas]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Economics of Climate Change. The Stern Review]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
<edition>Sexta</edition>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cambridge ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cambridge University Press]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B53">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tinoco-Rueda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Ángel]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez-Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jesús David,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Monterroso-Rivas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alejandro Ismael]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Efectos del cambio climático en la distribución potencial del maíz en el estado de Jalisco, México]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Terra Latinoamericana]]></source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>29</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B54">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Turner]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Billie L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kasperson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Roger E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Matson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pamela A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[McCarthy]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[James J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Corell]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Robert W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Christensen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lindsey,]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Schiller]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Andrew]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A Framework for Vulnerability Analysis in Sustainability Science]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>100</volume>
<numero>14</numero>
<issue>14</issue>
<page-range>8074-9</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B55">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Xiaolan L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Feng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yang]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[RHtestV4 User Manual]]></source>
<year>2007</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B56">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wilches-Chaux]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gustavo]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[La vulnerabilidad global]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Maskrey]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Andrew]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Los desastres no son naturales]]></source>
<year>1993</year>
<page-range>11-44</page-range><publisher-name><![CDATA[LA RED: Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B57">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>World Bank</collab>
<source><![CDATA[World Development Indicators: Structure of Output. The Wolrd Bank Data]]></source>
<year>2017</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
