<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-4298</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Botanical Sciences]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Bot. sci]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-4298</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Sociedad Botánica de México A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-42982017000200221</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17129/botsci.838</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Land use and cover change scenarios in the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor-Chiapas, México]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ramírez-Mejía]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Diana]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cuevas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gabriela]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Meli]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Paula]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendoza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Morelia Michoacán]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Morelia Michoacán]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Natura y Ecosistemas Mexicanos  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ciudad de México ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo Instituto de Investigaciones sobre los Recursos Naturales Laboratorio de Análisis para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Morelia Michoacán]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>95</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>221</fpage>
<lpage>234</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-42982017000200221&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-42982017000200221&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-42982017000200221&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract:  Background:  Human impact over natural ecosystems located in Southern Mexico is increasingly evident. We generated a spatially explicit land use and cover change (LUCC) model to assess current and potential impact of human activities and to identify the influence of variables such as: distance to paved and unpaved roads, human settlements, rivers, slope and protected areas.  Study site:  Mesoamerican Biological Corridor located in the state of Chiapas (MBC-Ch), Mexico.  Methods:  We calibrated a model for the period 1993-2002 and ran a simulation for 2007 which we compared against the real 2007 land use and cover map to evaluate model&#8217;s performance. We then projected LUCC to 2030 under three different scenarios: 1) Agriculture and Livestock (AGL), 2) Business As Usual (BAU) and, 3) Conservation (CON).  Results:  Proximity to roads and settlements increased deforestation probabilities whereas the presence of natural protected areas had the opposite effect. The AGL scenario predicted a reduction of 43 and 41 % in the extent of closed tropical and temperate forests, respectively. In comparison, the BAU scenario predicted a reduction of 19.5 % in the area covered by closed tropical forest and of 30.1 % in temperate forests. The extent of land destined to agriculture and livestock activities increased by 22 and 15 % in the AGL and BAU scenarios, respectively. In contrast, the CON scenario predicted slight changes in the landscape.  Conclusions:  Our simulations indicate that it is highly probable to see a marked decay in the extent (and likely integrity) of natural habitats in the MBC-Ch region if a comprehensive series of management actions are not urgently implemented.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen:  Antecedentes:  Los impactos humanos sobre los ecosistemas naturales del sur de México son cada vez más evidentes. Elaboramos un modelo espacialmente explícito de cambio de cobertura y uso del suelo (CCUS) para evaluar el impacto de las actividades humanas y para identificar la influencia de las variables: distancia a carreteras y terracerías, distancia a localidades, distancia a ríos, pendiente y áreas naturales protegidas.  Sitio de estudio:  Corredor Biológico Mesoamericano en el estado de Chiapas (CBM-Ch)  Métodos:  Elaboramos el modelo para el período 1993-2002 y generamos un mapa de CCUS simulado para el año 2007, que fue validado con un mapa observado (no simulado) del mismo año. Posteriormente modelamos los CCUS para el año 2030 bajo tres escenarios: 1) tendencial; 2) de conservación, y 3) agropecuario.  Resultados:  La cercanía a poblados y carreteras aumentó la probabilidad de cambio en el CBM-Ch. En contraste, la presencia de áreas naturales protegidas redujo la probabilidad de cambio. El escenario agropecuario predijo una reducción del 43 y 41 % en la extensión de los bosques tropicales y templados, respectivamente, mientras que el escenario tendencial predijo una reducción del 19.5 y 30.1 % en el área cubierta por bosques tropicales y bosques templados. La extensión de las áreas agropecuarias incrementó 15 y 22 % de acuerdo con el escenario tendencial y agropecuario, respectivamente. En contraste, el escenario de conservación predijo cambios muy pequeños en la extensión de los bosques y selvas.  Conclusiones:  Los modelos de simulación indican que es altamente probable observar una reducción en la extensión de los ecosistemas presentes en el CBM-Ch de no implementarse una serie de medidas urgentes para mitigar el impacto del CCUS en la región.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[biodiversity loss]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[deforestation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[future scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[secondary forests]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[spatial modeling]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[bosques secundarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[deforestación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escenarios futuros]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelación espacial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pérdida de biodiversidad]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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