<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-2422</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnología y ciencias del agua]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnol. cienc. agua]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-2422</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-24222019000600222</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24850/j-tyca-2019-06-09</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Contraste del método M5 generalizado para estimar predicciones extremas y PMP en 24 horas, en el estado de Zacatecas, México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Contrast of the Generalized M5 Method to estimate Extreme Predictions and PMP in 24 hours, in the state of Zacatecas, Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Campos-Aranda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Daniel Francisco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ San Luis Potosí]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<fpage>222</fpage>
<lpage>242</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-24222019000600222&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-24222019000600222&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-24222019000600222&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La precipitación máxima probable (PMP) es la base para la estimación de la creciente máxima probable, con la cual se dimensionan y revisan hidrológicamente las grandes obras hidráulicas. Existen dos grupos de métodos para estimar la PMP: meteorológicos y estadísticos. Los primeros son más confiables, pero requieren muchos datos que, por lo general, no están disponibles. Los métodos estadísticos son mucho más simples y sólo utilizan valores de la precipitación máxima diaria (PMD) anual. El método clásico de este grupo es el de David M. Hershfield, expuesto en 1961. Posteriormente, en Inglaterra (NERC, 1975), se desarrolló otro método estadístico basado en la predicción de duración 24 horas y periodo de retorno (Tr) de cinco años, designado M5; este enfoque permite realizar predicciones con diversos Tr. Jónas Elíasson (Elíasson, 1997; Elíasson, 2000) generalizó el método M5 en una técnica regional que sólo requiere dos parámetros estadísticos: el M5 y el coeficiente de variación (Cv). En este estudio, se contrastan en 81 localidades del estado de Zacatecas, México, los resultados del método M5 generalizado (MM5G) contra los del método de Hershfield, previamente calculados con base en los datos de PMD. El MM5G se aplicó utilizando los valores puntuales de M5 y Cv disponibles. Los resultados orientan a recomendar el MM5G para estimar predicciones de PMD con Tr menores de 100 años en sitios sin datos dentro del estado de Zacatecas, México. También se recomienda para estimaciones de la PMP puntual de duración 24 horas, recordando que tal método subestima menos de 16.4% con respecto al resultado del método de Hershfield, cuando Cv es menor de 0.251 y sobreestima, del orden de un 38.0%, cuando Cv excede a 0.386.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the basis for the estimation of the probable maximum flood, with which large hydraulic works are dimensioned and hydrologically revised. There are two groups of methods to estimate PMP: meteorological and statistical. Meteorological methods are the most reliable, but require a lot of data that is usually not available. Statistical methods are much simpler and only use annual maximum daily precipitation (PMD) values. The classic method of this group is the David M. Hershfield method, published in 1961. Subsequently, in England (NERC, 1975) another statistical method was developed based on the prediction of duration 24 hours and return period (Tr) 5 years, designated M5; this approach allows predictions with various Tr. Jónas Elíasson (Elíasson, 1997; Elíasson, 2000) generalized the M5 method, in a regional technique that only requires two statistical parameters: the M5 and the coefficient of variation (Cv). In this study, the results of the generalized M5 method (MM5G) are compared with those of the Hershfield method, previously calculated based on the PMD data for 81 localities in the state of Zacatecas, Mexico. The MM5G was applied using the available values of M5 and Cv. Results allow the recommendation of the use of MM5G to estimate predictions of PMD with Tr less than 100 years, in no-data sites in the state of Zacatecas, Mexico. It is also recommended for estimations of PMP of 24 hours duration, remembering that such method underestimates less than 16.4%, with respect to the result of the Hershfield method, when the Cv is less than 0.251 and overestimates, of the order of 38.0% when the Cv exceeds 0.386.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[precipitación máxima probable]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[creciente máxima probable]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicciones extremas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[error relativo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[coeficiente de variación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Probable maximum precipitation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[probable maximum flood]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[extreme predictions]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[relative error]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[coefficient of variation]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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