<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-2422</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnología y ciencias del agua]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Tecnol. cienc. agua]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-2422</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Coordinación de Comunicación, Participación e Información]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-24222016000100071</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis de frecuencias no estacionario de series de lluvia anual]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Non-Stationary Frequency Analysis of Annual Rainfall]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Álvarez-Olguín]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gabriela]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Escalante-Sandoval]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos Agustín]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Tecnológica de la Mixteca Instituto de Hidrología ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Huajuapan de León Oaxaca]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) Facultad de Ingeniería Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[México ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>7</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<fpage>71</fpage>
<lpage>88</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-24222016000100071&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-24222016000100071&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-24222016000100071&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: En las zonas del noroeste de México, donde existe una alta presión sobre el agua, las estrategias para afrontar periodos de escasez de este recurso podrían fallar si la disponibilidad se evalúa a través de valores medios de escurrimientos o precipitación, sin considerar el cambio en el comportamiento de tales variables. El objetivo de este trabajo fue estimar eventos de lluvia acumulada anual del noroeste de la república mexicana, asociados con diferentes periodos de retorno y escenarios futuros. Para siete funciones de probabilidad de valores mínimos se propusieron tres modelos no estacionarios válidos para series cuyas características estadísticas se han modificado a través del tiempo. Se analizaron 221 series de lluvia acumulada anual, de las cuales se determinó que 36 (16%) no son estacionarias; para 30 de éstas, los modelos no estacionarios representan mejor la variabilidad de los datos que los modelos convencionales. Se predice para el año 2044 una disminución menor que 20% de la lluvia media anual, en estaciones ubicadas en la península de California, Sonora y Sinaloa. Los resultados sugieren que estas zonas serán más susceptibles a sequías en el futuro.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: In northwestern Mexico, where water stress is high, strategies to address periods of water scarcity could fail if availability is evaluated based on mean runoff or precipitation values without considering changes in the behavior of these variables. The objective of this work was to estimate accumulated annual rainfall events in northwestern Mexico based on different return periods and future scenarios. Three non-stationary models were proposed for seven probability functions related to minimum values. The models were validated for series with statistical characteristics that change over time. A total of 221 accumulated annual rainfall series were evaluated, of which 36 (16%) were determined to be non-stationary. For these series, non-stationary models better represented the variability of the data than conventional models. A decrease in annual mean rainfall under 20% is predicted by the year 2044 at stations located on the California peninsula (Sonora and Sinaloa). The results suggest that these areas will be more vulnerable to future droughts.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[análisis de frecuencias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[series no estacionarias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escasez de agua]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sequías]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[disponibilidad de agua]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[noroeste de México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Frequency analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[non-stationary series]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[water scarcity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[drought]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[water availability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Northwestern Mexico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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