<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-1132</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias forestales]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-1132</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-11322024000400029</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29298/rmcf.v15i84.1402</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Long temporal trend and seasonal variation analysis of forest fires in Brazilian biomes: A stochastic approach]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Tendencia de largo plazo y variación estacional de los incendios forestales en los biomas brasileños: Un enfoque estocástico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villar-Hernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Bartolo de Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez-Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Paulino]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Souza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Amaury de]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Colegio de Postgraduados Campus Montecillo ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Federal University of Mato Grosso Do Sul  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Brazil</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>15</volume>
<numero>84</numero>
<fpage>29</fpage>
<lpage>53</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-11322024000400029&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-11322024000400029&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-11322024000400029&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This study uses a Bayesian Structural Poisson model to address the increasing frequency of wildfires in Brazilian biomes. Long-term trends, seasonal behavior, and the impact of certain meteorological variables on the occurrence of forest fires were identified in the following biomes: Amazon, Caatinga, Cerrado, Atlantic Forest, Pampa, and Pantanal. Nonlinear temporal trends were observed in all biomes, with varying annual increments between 1999-2020: 5.5 % in Pampa, 4.9 % in Pantanal, 3.0 % in Caatinga, 2.3 % in Amazon, 2.2 % in Atlantic Forest, and 2.2 % in Cerrado. Seasonal patterns were present in all biomes, with similarities among the Amazon, Caatinga, Cerrado, and Atlantic Forest, while the Pampa and Pantanal displayed a bimodal pattern. Environmental factors such as evapotranspiration, precipitation, and temperature had significant effects on fire occurrence in different biomes. The findings of this study contribute valuable insights into fire patterns and their relationships with environmental factors in Brazilian biomes, helping to inform fire management and prevention strategies.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este estudio aborda la creciente frecuencia de los incendios forestales en los biomas brasileños; para ello, se utilizó un modelo Bayesiano Estructural de Poisson. Se identificaron las tendencias a largo plazo, el comportamiento estacional y el impacto de determinadas variables meteorológicas en la ocurrencia de incendios forestales en los siguientes biomas: Amazonía, Caatinga, Cerrado, Bosque Atlántico, Pampa y Pantanal. Se observaron tendencias temporales no lineales en todos los biomas, con incrementos anuales variables entre 1999-2020: 5.5 % en Pampa, Pantanal 4.9 %, Catinga 3.0 %, Amazonía 2.3 %, Bosque Atlántico y Cerrado 2.2%. Los patrones estacionales estuvieron presentes en todos los biomas, con similitudes entre Amazonía, Catinga, Cerrado y Bosque Atlántico, mientras que la Pampa y el Pantanal mostraron un patrón bimodal. Factores ambientales como la evapotranspiración, las precipitaciones y la temperatura influyeron significativamente en el surgimiento de incendios en distintos biomas. Los resultados de este estudio aportan información valiosa sobre los patrones de incendios y su relación con los factores ambientales en los biomas brasileños, lo cual ayudará en el desarrollo de las estrategias de gestión y prevención de incendios.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bayesian modeling]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Brazilian biomes]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[long-term trends]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Poisson model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[stochastic variation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[wildfires]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelado bayesiano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[biomas brasileños]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[tendencias a largo plazo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo de Poisson]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[variación estocástica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[incendios forestales]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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