<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-0934</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias agrícolas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-0934</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-09342019000200225</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29312/remexca.v10i2.509</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Análisis del precio de la manzana mediante un modelo SARIMA]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Analysis of the price of the apple using a SARIMA model]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ruiz Hernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jaime Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barrios Puente]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gerónimo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gómez Gómez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Alma Alicia]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Chapingo División de Ciencias Económico Administrativas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Chapingo Estado de México]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>10</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>225</fpage>
<lpage>237</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-09342019000200225&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-09342019000200225&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-09342019000200225&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El seguimiento y predicción de los precios es una importante herramienta en la toma de decisiones en las actividades productivas. Con base a los datos del precio promedio mensuales de la manzana red delicious a nivel nacional, de enero de 1998 a julio de 2017, publicados por el sistema nacional de información e integración de mercados, con el software Gretl®. El objetivo de la investigación fue generar información sobre el comportamiento del precio de la manzana mediante un análisis de series de tiempo generándose una predicción para los 12 meses posteriores con un modelo Sarima     ARIMA   2, 1, 0 ×ARIMA (1, 1, 0   )  12. Los resultados señalaron que el error relativo para la predicción es 2%, lo cual garantiza pronósticos relativamente buenos, se pronosticó que el precio para julio de 2018 sería $31.99.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The monitoring and prediction of prices is an important tool in decision making in productive activities. Based on the monthly average price data of the red delicious apple at a national level, from January 1998 to July 2017, published by the national system of information and market integration, with the Gretl® software. The objective of the research was to generate information on the price behavior of the apple by means of a time series analysis, generating a prediction for the following 12 months with a Sarima model     ARIMA   2, 1, 0 ×ARIMA (1, 1, 0   )  12. The results indicated that the relative error for the prediction is 2%, which guarantees relatively good forecasts, it was predicted that the price for July 2018 would be $31.99.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ARIMA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[incertidumbre]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[planeación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[precios agrícolas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[series de tiempo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARIMA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[agricultural prices]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[planning]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[prediction]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[time series]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[uncertainty]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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