<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2007-0934</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de ciencias agrícolas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2007-0934</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2007-09342016000902451</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Regionalización del cambio climático en México]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Regionalization of climate change in Mexico]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ruiz-Corral]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Ariel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medina-García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Guillermo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez-Moreno]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Víctor Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez-González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José de Jesús]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Villavicencio García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raymundo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Durán Puga]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Noé]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grageda Grageda]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García Romero]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Giovanni Emmanuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,INIFAP Altos de Jalisco Campo Experimental Centro]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Tepatitlán Jalisco]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,INIFAP Campo Experimental Zacatecas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Calera Zacatecas]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,INIFAP Campo Experimental Pabellón ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Pabellón de Arteaga Aguascalientes]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Guadalajara Centro Universitario de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Jalisco]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,INIFAP Campo Experimental Costa de Hermosillo ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Hermosillo Sonora]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>7</volume>
<numero>spe13</numero>
<fpage>2451</fpage>
<lpage>2464</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2007-09342016000902451&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2007-09342016000902451&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2007-09342016000902451&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El objetivo de la presente investigación fue regionalizar patrones de cambio climático para la República Mexicana con base en valores de cambio térmico y pluvial de 708 celdas de tamaño 0.5 x 0.5° de arco. Los valores de cambio térmico y pluvial se establecieron al restar la climatología año 2050 Rcp4.5 de la climatología de referencia 1961-2010, considerando las variables temperatura máxima media (Tx) temperatura mínima media (Ti), temperatura media (Tm), oscilación térmica (OT) y precipitación (P) de los períodos primavera-verano (PV, que abarcó de mayo a octubre), otoño-invierno (OI, que abarcó de noviembre a abril) y anual. La climatología año 2050 Rcp4.5 se derivó de un modelo ensamble a partir del valor de la mediana de 11 modelos de circulación general (MCG) reducidos en escala, calibrados y pertenecientes al inter-comparación de modelos acoplados fase 5 (CMIP5), reportados en la 5a entrega del IPCC: BCC- CSM1-1, CCSM4, GISS-E2-R, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2- ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MIROC5,MRI-CGCM3,NorESM1-M. Los valores de cambio térmico y pluvial de las 708 celdas se sometieron a un análisis multivariado que incluyó un análisis de agrupamiento (Método de Ward) y de componentes principales (ACP). Para estimar el número óptimo de grupos se usó la validación contenida en el programa Clustan Graphics V8, utilizando 200 repeticiones. Posteriormente, se llevó a cabo un análisis discriminante para minimizar clasificaciones erróneas en los agrupamientos de las 708 celdas. Este análisis se llevó a cabo con base en el sistema de análisis estadístico (SAS). Los resultados mostraron que la variación en los valores de cambio climático de la República Mexicana para el año 2050 puede ser explicada por dos componentes principales, los cuales en conjunto explican un poco más de 84% de la variación. El CP1 estuvo integrado por variables referidas a valores de cambio térmico y el CP2 por variables relacionadas con valores de cambio pluvial. En el análisis de agrupamiento se reportó la formación de 11 grupos de celdas con características de cambio climático estadísticamente distintas, las cuales incluyen desde niveles de enfriamiento somero (-1 a 0 °C) a niveles de calentamiento severo (&gt;3 °C); niveles de humidificación muy somera (0 a +10 mm de precipitación estacional) a niveles de desecación severa (-300 a -150 mm de precipitación estacional); y, niveles de tropicalización muy somera (-0.5 a 0 °C) a niveles de continentalización moderada (1 a 1.5 °C). No obstante, que los resultados obtenidos representan una primera aproximación en esta temática, poseen un sustento estadístico robusto que permite utilizar el agrupamiento obtenido para fines de planeación agrícola.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The objective of this research was to regionalize climate change patterns for Mexico based on values of thermal and precipitations change from 708 cells of 0.5 x 0.5° arc. The values of thermal and precipitation changes were settled by subtracting the climatology 2050 Rcp4.5 from climatology reference 1961 to 2010, considering the variables mean maximum temperature (Tx), mean minimum temperature (Ti), mean temperature (Tm), thermal oscillation (OT) and precipitation (P) of the spring-summer period (PV, from May to October), autumn-winter (OI, from November to April) and annual. The climatology 2050 Rcp4.5 was derived from an assembly model from the median value of 11 general circulation models (MCG) reduced in scale, calibrated and belonging to the coupled model inter-comparison project phase 5 (CMIP5), reported in the 5th delivery from IPCC: BCC-CSM1-1, CCSM4, GISS-E2-R, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MIROC5, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M. The values of thermal and precipitation change from the 708 cells were subjected to a multivariate analysis including a cluster analysis (Ward method) and principal components (ACP). To estimate the optimal number of groups, contained validation was used in the Clustan Graphics V8 program, using 200 replications. Subsequently it conducted a discriminant analysis to minimize misclassifications in clusters from 708 cells. This analysis was conducted based on the statistical analysis system (SAS). The results showed that the variation in the values of climate change in Mexico for 2050 can be explained by two main components, which together account for just over 84% of the variation. CP1 was composed by variables related to thermal change values and CP2 by variables related to precipitation change values. In the cluster analysis the formation of 11 groups of cells with different statistical characteristics of climate change were reported, ranging from superficial cooling levels (-1 to 0 °C) to severe warming levels (&gt; 3 °C); superficial humidification levels (0 to +10 mm seasonal precipitation) to severe drying levels (-300 to -150 mm seasonal precipitation); and, very superficial levels of tropicalization (-0.5 0 °C) to moderate levels of continentalization (1 to 1.5 °C). However, the results represent a first approach in this topic; have a strong statistical support that allows using the clustering obtained for agricultural planning purposes.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[calentamiento global]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[carácter regional del cambio climático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[taxonomía numérica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[global warming]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[regional climate change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[numerical taxonomy]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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