<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-952X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Economía UNAM]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Economía UNAM]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-952X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-952X2018000300070</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fe.24488143e.2018.45.406</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Determinantes del tipo de cambio y su volatilidad]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[On the Determinants of exchange rate and volatility]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Clavellina Miller]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Luis]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Belisario Dominguez  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>México</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>15</volume>
<numero>45</numero>
<fpage>70</fpage>
<lpage>88</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-952X2018000300070&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-952X2018000300070&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-952X2018000300070&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Tras el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria estadounidense, el tipo de cambio ha observado una elevada volatilidad, la cual ha sido exacerbada, además, por otros factores como la desaceleración de la economía china, la salida de Reino Unido de la Unión Europea, la renegociación del tratado de libre comercio tras las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses, y factores internos como el lento crecimiento económico, la caída de los ingresos petroleros y el acelerado endeudamiento público. El peso mexicano es una de las monedas de los países emergentes que peor desempeño mostraron en 2016 y 2017. El presente análisis intenta identificar las variables teóricas más relevantes que afectan al tipo de cambio tanto en el corto como en el largo plazos. Estos determinantes son los diferenciales de inflación y crecimiento económico tasas de interés entre México y Estados Unidos, barreras comerciales, productividad, la posición fiscal del país, el nivel de endeudamiento público y las expectativas de crecimiento económico. Un factor adicional es el hecho de que el peso sirve como cobertura de riesgo en el mercado de futuros. Con el objetivo de renovar la credibilidad en la economía mexicana y en su moneda, es necesario que el gobierno federal cumpla con sus objetivos fiscales, reduzca la razón de deuda pública/PIB, vigile la correcta implementación de las reformas estructurales, promueva el crecimiento económico, fortalezca el aparato institucional, el cumplimiento de la ley y el combate a la corrupción y a la inseguridad.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The exchange rate volatility in Mexico has increased since the beginning of the monetary policy normalization in the US. There are many other factors that have increased volatility such as the deceleration of the Chinese economy, the Brexit, the possible renegotiation of NAFTA after the presidential elections in the US, as well as internal factors, for example slow economic growth, the fall in the state oil revenues and the high levels in public debt. The Mexican peso is one the currencies with worst performance among those in emerging markets during 2016. This paper tries to identify the most relevant theoretical variables that affect the exchange rate in Mexico not only in the long run but also in the short run. Some of these variables are related to the rates of inflation between Mexico and the US, commercial barriers, productivity, internal fiscal position, growth perspectives and the possible downgrade of Mexico´s sovereign bonds. Another important element that has spurred volatility is the fact that peso has been used as a currency hedging instrument in the futures market. In order to recover credibility in the Mexican economy and its currency, federal government needs to accomplish with its fiscal consolidation objectives by reducing the debt/GDP coefficient; observing the correct implementation of structural reforms, promoting economic growth, strengthening institutional structure and the rule of law and fighting against corruption and crime.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Dinero y tipo de interés]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Mercados financieros y macroeconomía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Gobierno y sistema monetario]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Money and Interest Rates]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Government and the Monetary System]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E4]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E44]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E42]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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