<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462022000100004</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v17i1.500</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Opciones reales secuenciales cuadrinomiales y volatilidad cambiante: incertidumbres tecnológicas]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Quadranomial Sequential Real Options with Changing Volatility: Technological Uncertainties]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Milanesi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gastón S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A a"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A3"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional del Sur  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Buenos Aires  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Tecnológica Nacional  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>17</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462022000100004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462022000100004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462022000100004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Las inversiones en biotecnologías para el desarrollo de vacunas se caracterizan por ser un proceso de etapas secuenciales, desde su desarrollo hasta el lanzamiento comercial, con múltiples fuentes de incertidumbre, destacándose el riesgo tecnológico y de mercado. Estas características hacen que modelos como los árboles de decisión y opciones reales binomiales, no sean apropiados. El trabajo desarrolla un modelo numérico de valoración para este tipo de inversiones, con distribución de probabilidad cuatrinomial, caracterizando los riesgos tecnológicos y de mercado, opciones secuenciales y volatilidad cambiante. Es usado el método de análisis de casos con un proyecto de inversión de opciones secuenciales de desarrollo de un fármaco y posterior lanzamiento al mercado. El proyecto es valuado con el modelo propuesto y comparado su resultado con las clásicas alternativas. Los resultados obtenidos exponen la superior capacidad del modelo para valorar opciones secuenciales con múltiples fuentes de incertidumbre y volatilidad cambiante. Este es una herramienta de valuación es sencillo y versátil, sin la complejidad y refinamiento de otras propuestas analíticas.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The investments in biotechnologies for vaccine development characterizes by a set of sequential stages, from its development to the market launch, with multiple sources of uncertainty, highlight technological and market risks. These characteristics made that models like decision tree analysis and binomial real options, they won´t be apppropiated. The paper develops a valuation numerical model for this type of investment, with quadranomial probability distribution, characterizing technological and market risk, sequential options and changing volatility. The cases analysis method with a sequential options investment project relative of drug ´s development and later market launch is used. The project is valued with the proposed model and compared with the classical alternatives. The obtained results expose the higher capacity for valuing multiples sources of uncertainty and changing volatility of the model. This is a simple and versatile valuation tool, without complexity and refinement of other analytic proposals.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[G13]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[G31]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Biotecnología]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[opciones secuenciales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cuatrinomial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[volatilidad cambiante]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[opciones arco iris]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G13]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G31]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Biotechnology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[sequential options]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[quadranomial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[changing volatility]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[rainbow options]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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