<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1665-5346</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista mexicana de economía y finanzas]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. mex. econ. finanz]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1665-5346</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1665-53462018000300345</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21919/remef.v13i3.327</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Contagio bursátil en los mercados del TLCAN, países emergentes y el mercado global]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Stock market contagion in the NAFTA, Emerging Countries and the World Market]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Díaz Rodríguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Héctor]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bucio]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Christian]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[México D.F.]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>345</fpage>
<lpage>362</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1665-53462018000300345&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1665-53462018000300345&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1665-53462018000300345&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: El presente estudio analiza el contagio bursátil entre los principales mercados de valores de los países del TLCAN (México, Canadá y Estados Unidos), el Índice Accionario de Mercados Emergentes (MSCIE) y el Índice Bursátil Global (MSCIW), durante el periodo 1994- 2016. El cambio en la relación de dependencia entre los mercados se modela a partir de cópula dinámica bivariada. Estimada la dependencia entre las series, se utiliza el modelo autoregresivo con cambio de régimen markoviano (MS-AR) para determinar si dicha relación evoluciona de acuerdo con dos regímenes: alta y baja dependencia. Los resultados muestran que existen cambios importantes en la relación de dependencia, sobre todo, en periodos relacionados con crisis, revelando la existencia de efecto contagio entre los mercados accionarios. La recomendación de política económica derivada es la reestructuración de las políticas de regulación y supervisión orientadas a los flujos de capital. La principal limitación es que los índices MSCIW y MSCIE capturan el comportamiento promedio de los países emergentes y a nivel mundial, lo cual implica dejar de lado el comportamiento particular de cada uno de ellos. La principal contribución es la utilización de una metodología complementaria que no ha sido utilizada hasta el momento para analizar el fenómeno y países objeto de estudio.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This study aims to analyze the stock market contagion between the main stock markets of the member countries of the NAFTA (Mexico, the United States, and Canada), the Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging (MSCIE), and the Morgan Stanley Capital International World (MSCIW), during the period of 1994-2016. The change in the dependence relation between the markets is modeled through a dynamic bivariate copula approach. Once the dynamic dependence between the series is estimated, the self-regressive model with Markovian Regiment Change (MS-AR) is used to determine whether dynamic dependence evolves according to two regimes: a low dependence regi-me and a high dependence regime. The results show that there are significant changes in the dependence relation, particularly, in periods of crisis, showing a contagion e&#64256;ect between the equity markets. The economic policy recommendation is the restructuring of regulatory and supervisory policies oriented to capital flows. The main limitation is that the indices (MSCIW and MSCIE) capture the average behavior of emerging countries and worldwide, which implies leaving aside the behavior particular to each of them. The main contribution is the use of a complementary methodology that has not been used until now to analyze the phenomenon and countries subject of this study.]]></p></abstract>
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<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[F36]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[G28]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cópula dinámica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cambio de Régimen Markoviano]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[TLCAN]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Mercados bursátiles]]></kwd>
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<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[F36]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[G28]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Copula approach]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Markovian Regimen Change]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[NAFTA]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Stock Markets]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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<source><![CDATA[Research in International Business and Finance]]></source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>22</volume>
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