<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0301-7036</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Problemas del desarrollo]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Prob. Des]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0301-7036</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0301-70362026000100123</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/iiec.20078951e.2026.224.70405</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Modeling the relationship between the Misery Index and Consumer Confidence in Mexico using an ARDL approach]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelización de la relación entre el Índice de Miseria y la confianza del consumidor en México utilizando un enfoque ARDL]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fernando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arias Guzmán]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ericka Judith]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Facultad de Estudios Superiores Acatlán ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>57</volume>
<numero>224</numero>
<fpage>123</fpage>
<lpage>150</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0301-70362026000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0301-70362026000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0301-70362026000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract Confidence is a key element of any economy, as it determines variables such as consumption and investment. In particular, consumer confidence has proven useful in analyzing and forecasting private consumption. Therefore, this study explores the relationship between the consumer confidence indicator and Okun&#8217;s Misery Index in Mexico using an autoregressive distributed lag model, which also considers the real GDP and the bilateral real exchange rate of Mexico with the U.S. as control variables. The model uses quarterly observations for the period 2005Q1 to 2024Q2. The results demonstrate that GDP increases the consumer confidence indicator, whereas depreciation in the Mexican peso negatively affects it. However, Okun&#8217;s misery index negatively affects the consumer confidence indicator only in the long term.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La confianza es un elemento clave de cualquier economía, ya que determina variables como el consumo y la inversión. En particular, la confianza de los consumidores ha demostrado ser útil para analizar y pronosticar el consumo privado. Por lo tanto, este estudio explora la relación entre el indicador de confianza de los consumidores y el índice de miseria de Okun en México utilizando un modelo autorregresivo de retraso distribuido, que también tiene en cuenta el producto interno bruto real y el índice del tipo de cambio real bilateral de México con Estados Unidos como variables de control. El modelo utiliza observaciones trimestrales para el periodo comprendido entre el primer trimestre de 2005 y el segundo trimestre de 2024. Los resultados demuestran que el PIB aumenta el índice de confianza del consumidor, mientras que la depreciación del peso mexicano afecta negativamente a dicho índice. Sin embargo, el índice de miseria de Okun sólo afecta negativamente al índice de confianza del consumidor a largo plazo.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[consumer confidence]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Okun&#8217;s Misery Index (MI)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[subjective indicators]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARDL]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[confianza del consumidor]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[índice de miseria de Okun]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[indicadores subjetivos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ARDL]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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