<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0188-7742</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Política y cultura]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Polít. cult.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0188-7742</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Xochimilco]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0188-77422018000100123</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Una alternativa para estimar la exactitud de las encuestas]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[An alternative to estimate the polls accuracy]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peña]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo de la]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Investigaciones Sociales Aplicadas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>49</numero>
<fpage>123</fpage>
<lpage>156</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0188-77422018000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0188-77422018000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0188-77422018000100123&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen La intención de este texto es presentar un estimador alterno para medir la exactitud de las encuestas electorales y algunos estimadores derivados, con lo que se busca amortiguar problemas detectados en las opciones actualmente disponibles. Esto se logra mediante el ajuste del valor de las diferencias absolutas según el error estadístico de las estimaciones y, para permitir un comportamiento simétrico del indicador, convertirlo en su logaritmo. La expectativa es que estos estimadores aporten una herramienta útil para futuros análisis sobre la exactitud de las encuestas preelectorales.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The intent of this paper is to present an alternative estimator to measure the accuracy of the polls and some derived estimators, which seeks to cushion problems detected in the available options. This is achieved by adjusting the value of the absolute differences according to the statistical error of the estimates and, to allow a symmetrical behavior of the indicator, to convert it into its logarithm. The expectation is that these estimators provide a useful tool for future analysis on the accuracy of pre-election polls.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[medición]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[precisión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[exactitud]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[encuestas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[elecciones]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[measurement]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[precision]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[accuracy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[polls]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[elections]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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