<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0188-3380</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Economía: teoría y práctica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Econ: teor. práct]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0188-3380</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, a través de la Unidad Iztapalapa, la Unidad Azcapotzalco y la Unidad Xochimilco, División de Ciencias Sociales]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0188-33802021000100109</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24275/etypuam/ne/542021/lopez</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Modeling Crude Oil and Refined Petroleum Product Spreads: An Alternative Tool for Risk Quantification]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo para el diferencial de precios entre el petróleo crudo y sus productos refinados: Una herramienta alternativa para la cuantificación de riesgos]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[López Velarde Loera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Núñez Mora]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[José Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mota Aragón]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. Beatriz]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Tecnologico de Monterrey EGADE, Business School ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Tecnologico de Monterrey EGADE, Business School ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana Departamento de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>54</numero>
<fpage>109</fpage>
<lpage>135</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0188-33802021000100109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0188-33802021000100109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0188-33802021000100109&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT In this paper, an alternative approach to modeling and simulating spreads between crude oil and petro-leum products is proposed. The aim is to provide a model that can be used as a risk management tool for risk quantification purposes. In particular, the relationship between the crude oil and gasoline spread and crude oil price was assessed. The methodology proposed is based on first-order Markov chain simulations. We demonstrate that although the proposed model is based on the empirical behavior of energy commodity spreads, this risk management tool reduces misquantifications of the risk generated by the price differentials of particular concern to this study and that this modeling alternative can help diminish model risk with respect to other existing models.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN En este artículo, se propone un enfoque alternativo para modelar y simular los diferenciales entre el precio del petróleo crudo y el de sus productos refinados. El objetivo es proporcionar un modelo que pueda utilizarse como herramienta de administración de riesgos, particularmente en lo que se refiere a la cuantificación de riesgos. Para el desarrollo de la metodología propuesta se evaluó particularmente la relación entre la dispersión del petróleo crudo y la gasolina y el precio del petróleo crudo. La metodología propuesta en el presente documento se basó en simulaciones de la cadena de Markov de primer orden. Demostramos que, a pesar de que el modelo aquí propuesto se basa en el comportamiento empírico de los diferenciales de las materias primas energéticas, esta herramienta de gestión de riesgos reduce la mala cuantificación del riesgo generado por los diferenciales de precios de especial interés para este estudio y que esta alternativa de modelización puede ayudarnos a disminuir el riesgo de los modelos en comparación con otros modelos existentes.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Commodity prices]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[energy markets]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[risk management]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Markov chains]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C02]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C14]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[C15]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[N7]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[P28]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[P34]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Precios de productos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mercados de energía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[administración de riesgos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[cadenas de Markov]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C02]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C14]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[C15]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[N7]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[P28]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[P34]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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