<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-7210</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Estudios demográficos y urbanos]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Estud. demogr. urbanos]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-7210</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de México A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-72102008000300571</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24201/edu.v23i3.1322</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[¿Se pueden predecir geográficamente los resultados electorales? Una aplicación del análisis de clusters y outliers espaciales]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Can Electoral Results Be Geographically Predicted? A Spatial Clusters and Outliers Analysis]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Vilalta Perdomo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Mexico</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2008</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2008</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>23</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>571</fpage>
<lpage>613</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-72102008000300571&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-72102008000300571&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-72102008000300571&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Los resultados de este estudio demuestran que al aplicar la estadística espacial en la geografía electoral es posible predecir los resultados electorales. Se utilizan los conceptos geográficos de cluster y outlier espaciales, y como variable predictiva la segregación espacial socioeconómica. Las técnicas estadísticas que se emplean son los índices globales y locales de autocorrelación espacial de Moran y el análisis de regresión lineal. Sobre los datos analizados se encuentra: 1) que la Ciudad de México posee clusters espaciales de apoyo electoral y de marginación, 2) outliers espaciales de marginación, 3) que los partidos electorales se excluyen geográficamente, y 4) que sus resultados dependen significativamente de los niveles de segregación espacial en la ciudad.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: The results of this study show that using spatial statistics in electoral geography can predict electoral results. The geographical concepts of spatial cluster and spatial outlier are applied, and a local spatial segregation measure used as the predictor variable. The statistical techniques employed are Moran´s global and local spatial autocorrelation indexes, and linear regression. The analysis shows: 1) that Mexico City contains spatial clusters of electoral support and marginality, 2) spatial outliers of marginality, 3) political parties exclude each other geographically, and 4) electoral results to be significantly dependent on the levels of spatial segregation within the city.]]></p></abstract>
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<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[segregación espacial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[México]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[electoral geography]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[spatial analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[spatial segregation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mexico]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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