<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0186-7202</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Estudios Económicos (México, D.F.)]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Estud. Econ. (México, D.F.)]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0186-7202</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[El Colegio de México A.C.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0186-72022019000200197</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estimaciones del PIB mensual en México basadas en el IGAE]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Monthly GDP estimates in Mexico based on the IGAE]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Elizondo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rocio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Banco de México  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>34</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>197</fpage>
<lpage>241</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0186-72022019000200197&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0186-72022019000200197&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0186-72022019000200197&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Se presentan tres métodos para estimar el PIB mensual en México: (1) una aproximación determinística; (2) una extensión del método de Dentón; y, (3) el filtro de Kalman. En dichos métodos el PIB mensual es una variable no observable que se aproxima utilizando únicamente al IGAE. Los tres métodos muestran un buen ajuste a los datos observados del PIB trimestral dentro de la muestra, con errores promedio de ajuste como máximo de 0.1%. Adicionalmente, dada la estructura dinámica del método de filtro de Kalman y que sus parámetros permanecen relativamente estables bajo diferentes periodos de estimación, se utilizó este para realizar pronósticos fuera de la muestra.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This article presents three methods to estimate the monthly GDP in Mexico: (1) a deterministic approach; (2) an extension of Denton method; and, (3) the Kalman filter. In these methods the monthly GDP is regarded as an unobservable variable that is approximated us-ing only the IGAE. Results show that the three methods do a good job in adjustingthe observed data of the quarterly GDP within the sample, with average adjustment errors of at most 0.1%. Additionally, given the dynamic structure of the Kalman filter method and that under different estimation periods it was found that the parameters corresponding remained relatively stable. Therefore, this method was used to perform out-of-sample forecasts.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[producto interno bruto]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[indicador global de la actividad económica (IGAE)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[filtro de kalman]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[método de denton]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pronósticos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[I10]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[I12]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[J21]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[J30]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[gross domestic product]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[global indicator of economic activity (IGAE)]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Kalman filter]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Denton method]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasts]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[I10]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[I12]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[J21]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[J30]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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