<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672024000300004</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22201/fe.01851667p.2024.329.88263</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Financial fragility, multiple equilibria and economic cycles]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Fragilidad financiera, múltiples desequilibrios y ciclos económicos]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carvalho]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luciano Dias de]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gabriel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luciano Ferreira]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Federal de Viçosa  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Brasil</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Brasil</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>83</volume>
<numero>329</numero>
<fpage>4</fpage>
<lpage>25</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672024000300004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672024000300004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672024000300004&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The aim of this work is to present a theoretical model of financial fragility, in which the money supply is partly generated endogenously by banks, the cash flow of firms is explicitly considered, the monetary policy is endogenous as well as the banks&#8217; mark-up rate, which influences their loan interest rates. Financial fragility emerges in the upward phase of the economic cycle when the perception of risk declines at the same time as the level of debt considered critical by banks is relaxed. As this happens, the economic system, in its adjustment trajectory, may assume a dynamic that takes it from the Hedge region to the Speculative region and then to the Ponzi region, thus beginning the decreasing phase of the cycle. A series of retroactive effects arise with multiple equilibria results, according to the Minskian perspective.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar un modelo teórico de fragilidad financiera, en el que la oferta monetaria es generada, en parte, de forma endógena por los bancos; el flujo de caja de las empresas se considera explícitamente; la política monetaria es endógena al igual que el margen de beneficio de los bancos, que influye en las tasas de interés de sus préstamos. La fragilidad financiera surge en la fase ascendente del ciclo económico, cuando la percepción de riesgo disminuye al mismo tiempo que se relaja el nivel de deuda considerado crítico por los bancos. Al suceder esto, el sistema económico, en su trayectoria de ajuste, puede asumir una dinámica que lo lleve de la región Hedge a la región especulativa y luego a la región Ponzi, iniciando así la fase decreciente del ciclo. Una serie de efectos retroactivos surge con resultados de equilibrios múltiples según la perspectiva minskiana.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Financial fragility]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic cycles]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[state of confidence]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E32]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[E63]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[fragilidad financiera]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ciclos económicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[estado de confianza]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E32]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[E63]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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