<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0185-1667</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación económica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. Econ]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0185-1667</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Economía]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0185-16672007000300061</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Suave fracaso: la política macroeconómica de Brasil durante 1999-2005]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Smooth Failure: The Macroeconomic Policy of Brazil during 1999-2005]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Macedo Cintra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marcos Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Estadual de Campinas Instituto de Economía ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Brazil</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>66</volume>
<numero>261</numero>
<fpage>61</fpage>
<lpage>96</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0185-16672007000300061&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0185-16672007000300061&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0185-16672007000300061&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: El artículo pretende demostrar que el modelo macroeconómico brasileño ha generado ciclos económicos que acompañan a los movimientos de expansión y a la caída de la liquidez y del comercio mundial, pero que no ha sido capaz de reinstalar al país en el camino del desarrollo económico y social. Las políticas cambiaria, monetaria y fiscal son contradictorias y bloquean el crecimiento sostenido, generan estrangulamientos de la infraestructura y el gasto social. El texto está organizado en cuatro apartados. El primero discute el ajuste de las cuentas externas y los posibles impactos de la valorización cambiaria a partir de mediados de 2004. El segundo analiza el carácter inadecuado de la política de metas de inflación, dados los mecanismos de formación de precios internos. El tercero presenta el papel de la política fiscal, una variable de ajuste del modelo macroeconómico dado que absorbe los impactos de las políticas cambiaria y monetaria. Las consideraciones finales presentan posibles políticas alternativas para intentar romper el círculo vicioso del modelo macroeconómico con apertura financiera.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This paper supports the thesis that the Brazilian macroeconomic model has proven to be capable of creating economic cycles which follow expansion and retraction movements of liquidity and world trade. However, it has not been able to bring the country back to the economic and social development pathway. Exchange, monetary and fiscal policies are contradictory and contribute to obstruct sustained growth, strangle infrastructure enhancement, and limit expansion of social expenditure. This paper is divided into four sections. The first part deals with the external account adjustment and possible impacts of exchange rate valuation since mid-2004. The second section analyses how inappropriate the inflation target policy is under domestic pricing conditions. The third part describes the role of fiscal policy, which is the adjustment variable of the macroeconomic model since it bears impacts of exchange rate and monetary policies. Final considerations outline possible alternative policies as an attempt to dismantle the vicious circle of the macroeconomic model with financial liberalization.]]></p></abstract>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Afonso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.R.R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Araújo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[É.A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Mais tributos com menos demanda pública: o (duro) ajuste brasileiro]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ XVIISeminario de Política Fiscal]]></conf-name>
<conf-date>2005</conf-date>
<conf-loc>Santiago de Chile </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Brasil: inversión extranjera directa y estrategias]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cintra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.A.M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[La inversión extranjera en América Latina y el Caribe]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<page-range>85-140</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Santiago de Chile ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[CEPAL]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Banco Central de Brasil (BCB)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Séries Temporais]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Brasil ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[BCB]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Banco Central de Brasil (BCB)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Sistema de Metas de Inflación]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Brasil ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[BCB]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[O que o crédito ao consumidor pode significar para 2005?]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.C.M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Folha de S. Paulo]]></source>
<year></year>
<page-range>B2</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Sao Paulo ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Delfim diz que Lula precisa mudar]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Folha de S. Paulo]]></source>
<year></year>
<page-range>B-2</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Sao Paulo ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Belluzzo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.G. de M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Almeida]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.S.G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Depois da queda: a economia brasileira da crise da dívida aos impasses do Real]]></source>
<year>2002</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Río de Janeiro ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Civilização Brasileira]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A insustentável leveza do crescimento]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Belluzzo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.G. de M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carneiro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Política Econômica em Foco]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>1-11</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Campinas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Estudios de Coyuntura y Política Económica-Instituto de Economía-Universidad Estatal de Campinas (Unicamp)]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[O crescimento como condição da sustentabilidade fiscal]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Biasoto Jr.]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Política Econômica em Foco]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>92-107</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Campinas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Estudios de Coyuntura y Política Económica-Instituto de Economía-Unicamp]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Biasoto Jr.]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A polêmica sobre o déficit público e a sustentabilidade da política fiscal]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pinto]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.P.A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Biasoto Jr.]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Política fiscal e desenvolvimento no Brasil]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<page-range>399-422</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Campinas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto de Economía-Unicamp]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bogdanski]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tombini]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Werlang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.R.O.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil]]></source>
<year>2000</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Brasília, D.F. ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco Central,]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[O mito da contração fiscal expansionista nos EUA durante o Governo Clinton]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Braga]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Serrano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Revista Economia e Sociedade]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
<volume>15</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>213-39</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Campinas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto de Economía-Unicamp]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A falsa via chilena: lógica, contradições e limites do modelo]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carcanholo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Sociedade Brasileira de Economia Política]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<numero>15</numero>
<issue>15</issue>
<page-range>34-61</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Río de Janeiro ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cardim de Carvalho]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.J. de]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[O sistema financeiro brasileiro: a modernização necessária]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sicsú]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Paula]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.F. de]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Michel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Novo-desenvolvimentismo: um projeto nacional de crescimento com eqüidade social]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<page-range>329-46</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Barueri ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editora Manole e Río de Janeiro]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Controvérsias recentes sobre controles de capitais]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cardim de Carvalho]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.J. de]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sicsú]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Revista de Economia Política]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>163-84</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[São Paulo ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editora 34,]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carneiro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A política macroeconômica da era FHC ao governo Lula: da trindade impossível à autonomia necessária]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Velloso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.P. dos R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Governo Lula: novas prioridades e desenvolvimento sustentado]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<page-range>129-53</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Río de Janeiro ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[José Olympio Editora-Instituto Nacional de Altos Estudios]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Carvalho]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.E.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Dívida pública: um debate necessário]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sicsú]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Paula]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.F. de]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Michel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Novo-desenvolvimentismo: um projeto nacional de crescimento com eqüidade social]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<page-range>379-99</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Barueri ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editora Manole e Rio de Janeiro]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Os limites da inserção internacional dos países emergentes no limiar do século XXI]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cintra]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.A.M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Farhi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Ensaios FEE]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<issue>2</issue>
<page-range>351-402</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Porto Alegre ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fundación de Economía y Estadística Siegfried Emanuel Heuser]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B19">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Epstein]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grabel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jomo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Capital Management Techniques in Developing Countries: An Assessment of Experiences from the 1990&#8217;s and Lessons for the Future]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B20">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Os vínculos entre a taxa de juros, o risco-país e a taxa de câmbio do real]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Farhi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Política Econômica em Foco]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<numero>4^s4</numero>
<issue>4^s4</issue>
<supplement>4</supplement>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Campinas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Estudios de Coyuntura y Política Económica-Instituto de Economía-Unicamp]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B21">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Ativos brasileiros e liquidez internacional]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Farhi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Política Econômica em Foco]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<numero>5^s5</numero>
<issue>5^s5</issue>
<supplement>5</supplement>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Campinas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Estudios de Coyuntura y Política Económica-Instituto de Economía-Unicamp]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B22">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Metas de inflação e o medo de crescer]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Farhi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Política Econômica em Foco]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<numero>4</numero>
<issue>4</issue>
<page-range>73-91</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Campinas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Estudios de Coyuntura y Política Económica-Instituto de Economía-Unicamp]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B23">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fraga]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Goldfajn]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Minella]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Brasília, D.F. ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Banco Central do Brasil]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B24">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Fundación Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística (IBGE)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Brasil ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[IBGE]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B25">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Fundación Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística (IBGE)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílio]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Brasil ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[IBGE]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B26">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Furtado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[O comportamento inovador das empresas industriais no Brasil]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ Forum Nacional, Seminario Especial-Mini- Fórum em homenagem aos 40 anos do Ipea]]></conf-name>
<conf-date>2004</conf-date>
<conf-loc>Río de Janeiro </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B27">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<source><![CDATA[Global Invest]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Brasil ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B28">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A apreciação do real tem origem nos juros elevados]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guimarães]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.B.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Gazeta Mercantil]]></source>
<year></year>
<page-range>A-6</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[São Paulo ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B29">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI)</collab>
<source><![CDATA[World Economic Outlook]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Washington, DC ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[FMI]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B30">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Pastore sugere taxar capital de curto prazo]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lamucci]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Valor Econômico]]></source>
<year></year>
<page-range>A16</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[São Paulo ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B31">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Rumos da política fiscal]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lopreato]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.L.C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Política Econômica em Foco]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<numero>5^s2</numero>
<issue>5^s2</issue>
<supplement>2</supplement>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Campinas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Estudios de Conjuntura y Política Económica-Instituto de Economía-Unicamp]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B32">
<nlm-citation citation-type="confpro">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mendonça de Barros]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[A revolução de um agronegócio/agroindústria que estimule outros setores e as exportações, em contexto de crescimento sustentável]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<conf-name><![CDATA[ XVIIForum Nacional-China e Índia como desafio e exemplo e a reação do Brasil]]></conf-name>
<conf-date>2005</conf-date>
<conf-loc>Río de Janeiro </conf-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B33">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Não basta déficit zero para reduzir a taxa de juros]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nakano]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Valor Econômico]]></source>
<year></year>
<page-range>A11</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[São Paulo ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B34">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Palma]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Mexican Economy since Trade Liberalization and NAFTA: On the &#8216;De-linkaging&#8217; of a Dynamic Export Expansion and the Collapsing of an &#8216;Export Multiplier&#8217;]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Cambridge ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Facultad de Economía y Política, Universidad de Cambridge, Reino Unido]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B35">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Prasad]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[E.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rogoff]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wei]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Shang-Jin]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kose]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.A.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence]]></source>
<year>2003</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Washington, DC ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[FMI]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B36">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A sustentabilidade da melhoria nas contas externas]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Prates]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Política Econômica em Foco]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<numero>5</numero>
<issue>5</issue>
<page-range>57-77</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Campinas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro de Estudios de Coyuntura y Política Económica-Instituto de Economía-Unicamp]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B37">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[O padrão dos ciclos de crescimento da economia brasileira: 1947-2003]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Resende]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.F. da C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Economia e Sociedade]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<volume>14</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>25-55</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Campinas ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Instituto de Economía-Unicamp]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B38">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salm]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Estagnação econômica, desemprego e exclusão social]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="editor">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sicsú]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Paula]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.F. de]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Michel]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Novo-desenvolvimentismo: um projeto nacional de crescimento com eqüidade social]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<page-range>189-216</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[Barueri ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editora Manole e Rio de Janeiro]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B39">
<nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Singh]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Belaisch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Collyns]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Masi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P. de]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Krieger]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Meredith]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rennhack]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Stabilization and Reform in Latin America: A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Experience since the Early 1990s]]></source>
<year>2005</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Washington, DC ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[FMI]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B40">
<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Emprego precário cresce 19% em 2004]]></article-title>
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soares]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Folha de S. Paulo]]></source>
<year></year>
<page-range>B1</page-range><publisher-loc><![CDATA[São Paulo ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B41">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valdivia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.J.H.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Chile: al compás del capital extranjero]]></source>
<year>2004</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Santiago de Chile ]]></publisher-loc>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
